Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Birnin Kebbi, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Birnin Kebbi has 184,161 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.2 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦61.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

184,161

Usable roof area

9.84 km²

2.2 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦61.4bn/yr

54.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Birnin Kebbi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦61.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦59.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.22tn

NPV₦482bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy50.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity186 MWp

Capex₦195bn

Year-one energy value₦158bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.44tn

NPV₦1.24tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Birnin Kebbi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 186 MWp
Capital cost: ₦195bn
Year 1 savings: ₦158bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.24tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Birnin Kebbi pays back quickly

Of the 182,269 buildings in Birnin Kebbi with a modelled payback, 53.1% pay back inside five years and 18.4% inside three.

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How much of Birnin Kebbi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Birnin Kebbi consume 121 GWh/yr but want 171 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Birnin Kebbi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Birnin Kebbi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 182,269 buildings with a modelled result out of 184,161 in Birnin Kebbi. 125,373 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years33,497 (18%)

Under 5 years96,764 (53%)

Under 7 years125,618 (69%)

Under 10 years145,582 (80%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%141,025 (77%)

Above 15%125,373 (68%)

Above 20%104,038 (56%)

Above 25%84,406 (46%)

CO₂ avoided

112 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

25.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

50.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

345k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Birnin Kebbi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Birnin Kebbi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	60,241	14,406	₦13.8bn	₦13.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
B	51,312	14,239	₦28.1bn	₦27.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
D	25,590	2,764	₦6.52bn	₦6.48bn	9%	13.1 yr
C	24,437	1,847	₦8.2bn	₦7.93bn	19%	5.9 yr
E	22,581	2,666	₦4.82bn	₦4.56bn	9%	13.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	181,745	34,662	₦36bn	₦35.4bn	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	1,071	549	₦6.75bn	₦6.59bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	599	267	₦110m	₦110m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	547	337	₦18.1bn	₦17.3bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	99	75	₦31.2m	₦31.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	61	21	₦220m	₦220m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	30	10	₦104m	₦104m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	5	1	₦11.5m	₦11.5m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	4	0	₦2.51m	₦2.51m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	79,041	11,488	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	39,574	7,844	₦5.02bn	₦4.67bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	30,988	4,827	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	27,649	8,696	₦12.8bn	₦12.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	6,501	2,807	₦18.7bn	₦18.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	408	260	₦22.5bn	₦21.7bn	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	85,300	21,597	₦23.5bn	₦23.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	31,344	5,674	₦14.6bn	₦14.3bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	27,377	3,246	₦5bn	₦4.96bn	19%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	21,636	3,732	₦14bn	₦13.2bn	9%	13.1 yr
Rural	18,504	1,673	₦4.27bn	₦4.25bn	9%	12.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	66,482	11,140	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	11%	9.1 yr
Residential Informal	49,036	8,745	₦6.17bn	₦6.17bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	25,662	2,397	₦946m	₦946m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	24,304	6,809	₦5.33bn	₦4.98bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	15,385	5,356	₦22.4bn	₦22bn	31%	3.6 yr
Apartment	626	148	₦50.4m	₦50.4m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	596	267	₦109m	₦109m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	518	249	₦3.09bn	₦3.03bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	365	244	₦16.8bn	₦16bn	51%	2.1 yr
Duplex	250	67	₦19.2m	₦19.2m	31%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	150	95	₦304m	₦304m	69%	1.6 yr
Unknown	131	42	₦613m	₦613m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	184,159	35,922	₦61.4bn	₦59.7bn
Farmland	2	0	₦203k	₦203k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	182,914	35,210	₦37.9bn	₦37.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	680	368	₦5.33bn	₦5.18bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	567	344	₦18.1bn	₦17.3bn	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	66,095	11,092	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn
3.0	39,000	11,947	₦41.1bn	₦39.7bn
4.0	37,033	6,040	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn
2.0	32,463	5,402	₦3.36bn	₦3.32bn
1.0	9,275	1,287	₦504m	₦504m
5.0	247	125	₦2.74bn	₦2.66bn
6.0	48	29	₦1.68bn	₦1.6bn