Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Zuru, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Zuru has 112,072 buildings with a viable rooftop and 982 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦24.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

112,072

Usable roof area

4.41 km²

982 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦24.9bn/yr

20.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Zuru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦24.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.33tn

NPV₦202bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy21.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity114 MWp

Capex₦122bn

Year-one energy value₦123bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.82tn

NPV₦998bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Zuru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 114 MWp
Capital cost: ₦122bn
Year 1 savings: ₦123bn/yr
NPV: ₦998bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Zuru pays back quickly

Of the 110,895 buildings in Zuru with a modelled payback, 36.7% pay back inside five years and 11.7% inside three.

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How much of Zuru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Zuru consume 42.3 GWh/yr but want 63.6 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Zuru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Zuru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 110,895 buildings with a modelled result out of 112,072 in Zuru. 49,526 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,958 (12%)

Under 5 years40,677 (37%)

Under 7 years49,584 (45%)

Under 10 years56,995 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%54,479 (49%)

Above 15%49,526 (44%)

Above 20%43,005 (38%)

Above 25%36,570 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

47 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

440k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Zuru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Zuru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	45,933	11,757	₦18.1bn	₦18.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	33,396	1,025	₦4.31bn	₦4.29bn	5%	15.9 yr
E	32,743	1,101	₦2.44bn	₦2.32bn	7%	15.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	110,539	12,836	₦19.9bn	₦19.7bn	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial General	685	467	₦2.47bn	₦2.47bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	515	353	₦91.3m	₦91.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	275	207	₦2.32bn	₦2.31bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	49	17	₦39.5m	₦39.5m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	5	1	₦20.2m	₦20.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	3	2	₦9.91m	₦9.91m	43%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦383k	₦383k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	54,241	3,995	₦451m	₦451m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	24,481	2,017	₦664m	₦664m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	19,964	3,172	₦2.63bn	₦2.62bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	11,028	3,516	₦8.19bn	₦8.11bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,283	1,142	₦10.2bn	₦10.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	75	41	₦2.72bn	₦2.72bn	53%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	36,418	2,683	₦7.99bn	₦7.96bn	7%	14.6 yr
Urban Centre	33,521	9,247	₦12.7bn	₦12.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	28,994	520	₦2.66bn	₦2.56bn	5%	16.6 yr
Rural	6,638	116	₦543m	₦543m	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,501	1,317	₦950m	₦950m	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	64,888	4,142	₦468m	₦468m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	19,311	3,567	₦3.17bn	₦3.16bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	13,696	2,768	₦2.2bn	₦2.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	6,431	2,358	₦14bn	₦13.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	6,080	1	₦93.6m	₦93.6m	19%	5.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	515	353	₦91.3m	₦91.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	422	297	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	53%	2.1 yr
Institutional	160	117	₦2.01bn	₦2.01bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	107	77	₦166m	₦166m	83%	1.4 yr
Apartment	91	0	₦2.8m	₦2.8m	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial	81	51	₦758m	₦758m	57%	1.9 yr
School	61	45	₦67.3m	₦67.3m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	112,069	13,883	₦24.9bn	₦24.7bn
Farmland	3	0	₦11.8k	₦11.8k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	111,288	13,328	₦20.4bn	₦20.2bn	9%	9.6 yr
SME High	509	348	₦2.12bn	₦2.12bn	53%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	275	207	₦2.32bn	₦2.31bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	64,472	4,147	₦465m	₦465m
3.0	15,369	5,094	₦17bn	₦16.8bn
2.0	13,768	2,602	₦2.62bn	₦2.6bn
4.0	9,585	1,182	₦3.36bn	₦3.36bn
1.0	8,850	842	₦865m	₦853m
5.0	27	15	₦515m	₦515m
6.0	1	1	₦37.9m	₦37.9m