Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Argungu, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Argungu has 104,859 buildings with a viable rooftop and 954 MWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦31.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

104,859

Usable roof area

4.3 km²

954 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦31.9bn/yr

27.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Argungu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦31.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦30.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.59tn

NPV₦243bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy21 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity101 MWp

Capex₦107bn

Year-one energy value₦99.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.72tn

NPV₦801bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Argungu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 101 MWp
Capital cost: ₦107bn
Year 1 savings: ₦99.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦801bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Argungu pays back quickly

Of the 104,205 buildings in Argungu with a modelled payback, 47.6% pay back inside five years and 16.8% inside three.

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How much of Argungu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Argungu consume 55.6 GWh/yr but want 76.6 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Argungu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Argungu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 104,205 buildings with a modelled result out of 104,859 in Argungu. 60,658 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,530 (17%)

Under 5 years49,609 (48%)

Under 7 years60,754 (58%)

Under 10 years73,449 (70%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%69,242 (66%)

Above 15%60,658 (58%)

Above 20%52,893 (50%)

Above 25%43,913 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

54.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

248k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Argungu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Argungu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	28,741	2,267	₦3.44bn	₦3.2bn	9%	9.9 yr
B	27,568	6,482	₦12.3bn	₦11.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
E	25,239	3,185	₦4.08bn	₦3.73bn	9%	9.6 yr
C	20,304	3,429	₦9.14bn	₦8.67bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	3,007	750	₦3.03bn	₦3.03bn	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	101,403	14,771	₦22.5bn	₦21bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,728	474	₦275m	₦275m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,284	500	₦3.85bn	₦3.84bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	293	244	₦5.2bn	₦5.07bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	142	121	₦55.3m	₦55.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	4	1	₦4.67m	₦4.67m	39%	2.9 yr
Industrial	3	2	₦7.38m	₦7.26m	85%	1.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦160k	₦160k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,755	5,368	₦807m	₦806m	7%	13.9 yr
50 100m2	23,391	3,900	₦4.3bn	₦4.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	20,167	2,719	₦1.36bn	₦1.03bn	19%	5.9 yr
100 250m2	10,444	3,199	₦9.87bn	₦9.07bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,018	873	₦10.3bn	₦9.87bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	84	54	₦5.31bn	₦5.27bn	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	30,431	7,525	₦13bn	₦12.9bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	28,366	4,106	₦11bn	₦10.6bn	13%	8.1 yr
Rural	18,321	1,425	₦723m	₦723m	9%	13.1 yr
Unclassified	15,308	1,937	₦5.23bn	₦4.04bn	9%	13.4 yr
Dense Urban	12,433	1,120	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	48,612	4,580	₦524m	₦524m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Small	22,419	4,777	₦5.42bn	₦4.87bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	11,475	2,083	₦2.4bn	₦2.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	9,396	2,697	₦13.8bn	₦12.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	9,077	558	₦388m	₦388m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,728	474	₦275m	₦275m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	994	285	₦2.07bn	₦2.06bn	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	277	58	₦22.5m	₦22.5m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	192	163	₦4.57bn	₦4.53bn	59%	1.9 yr
Duplex	147	18	₦9.94m	₦9.94m	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial	140	100	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	94	79	₦266m	₦266m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	104,859	16,113	₦31.9bn	₦30.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	103,421	15,481	₦23.4bn	₦21.9bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	1,143	386	₦3.3bn	₦3.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	295	246	₦5.21bn	₦5.08bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	47,249	4,595	₦520m	₦520m
2.0	19,730	3,751	₦4.86bn	₦3.94bn
3.0	17,242	4,788	₦21.2bn	₦20.4bn
4.0	11,221	1,250	₦3.59bn	₦3.59bn
1.0	8,969	1,717	₦892m	₦892m
5.0	429	11	₦866m	₦860m
6.0	19	1	₦56.1m	₦56.1m