Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Ngaski, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Ngaski has 96,611 buildings with a viable rooftop and 454 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.35bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

96,611

Usable roof area

2.06 km²

454 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.35bn/yr

5.01 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ngaski

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.35bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.29bn

Lifetime cash saved₦344bn

NPV₦48.3bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.6 yr

Unlocked energy6.81 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity50.5 MWp

Capex₦55.4bn

Year-one energy value₦56.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.67tn

NPV₦459bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ngaski's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 50.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦55.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦56.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦459bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ngaski pays back quickly

Of the 94,539 buildings in Ngaski with a modelled payback, 16.3% pay back inside five years and 2.3% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Ngaski's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ngaski consume 12 GWh/yr but want 18.9 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Ngaski

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ngaski actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 94,539 buildings with a modelled result out of 96,611 in Ngaski. 24,906 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,187 (2%)

Under 5 years15,380 (16%)

Under 7 years24,952 (26%)

Under 10 years33,326 (35%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%30,963 (32%)

Above 15%24,906 (26%)

Above 20%17,249 (18%)

Above 25%12,958 (13%)

CO₂ avoided

12.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.88 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.81 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

218k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ngaski.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ngaski

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	36,954	408	₦1.42bn	₦1.39bn	5%	17.1 yr
E	30,651	357	₦1bn	₦1bn	5%	17.1 yr
C	28,940	1,315	₦3.88bn	₦3.85bn	17%	6.6 yr
B	66	56	₦43.6m	₦43.6m	69%	1.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	95,756	1,516	₦5.16bn	₦5.12bn	7%	15.6 yr
Commercial Retail	354	243	₦15.4m	₦15.4m	47%	2.1 yr
Anchor	255	214	₦1.01bn	₦981m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	210	139	₦158m	₦158m	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	28	19	₦4.96m	₦4.96m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	7	5	₦5.63m	₦5.63m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦14.7k	₦14.7k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	67,543	729	₦210m	₦210m	5%	17.6 yr
30 50m2	16,934	312	₦265m	₦264m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	8,635	382	₦640m	₦640m	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	2,910	486	₦1.68bn	₦1.64bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	559	213	₦2.45bn	₦2.43bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	30	14	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	46,127	387	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn	5%	18.1 yr
Rural	27,092	451	₦573m	₦573m	7%	14.6 yr
Dense Urban	13,191	780	₦1.41bn	₦1.39bn	17%	6.4 yr
Urban	10,201	518	₦2.81bn	₦2.77bn	15%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	70,847	592	₦197m	₦197m	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Small	12,623	388	₦790m	₦790m	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	9,492	536	₦4.11bn	₦4.08bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,794	0	₦53.6m	₦53.6m	17%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	354	243	₦15.4m	₦15.4m	47%	2.1 yr
Institutional	143	122	₦450m	₦450m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	93	77	₦96.3m	₦96.3m	81%	1.4 yr
School	61	49	₦31.7m	₦31.7m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	54	48	₦437m	₦425m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	43	8	₦11.6m	₦11.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Clinic	38	34	₦21.5m	₦21.5m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial	22	15	₦18m	₦18m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	96,451	2,091	₦6.11bn	₦6.04bn
Farmland	147	39	₦136m	₦136m
Industrial	13	6	₦107m	₦107m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	96,289	1,898	₦5.31bn	₦5.27bn	7%	15.6 yr
Enterprise	258	216	₦1.01bn	₦982m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	64	22	₦29.5m	₦29.5m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	70,857	599	₦197m	₦197m
2.0	11,003	475	₦1.24bn	₦1.21bn
1.0	9,332	424	₦363m	₦362m
3.0	5,114	634	₦4.52bn	₦4.49bn
4.0	305	4	₦29.6m	₦29.6m