Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Bagudu, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Bagudu has 187,317 buildings with a viable rooftop and 967 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.21bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

187,317

Usable roof area

4.43 km²

967 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.21bn/yr

5.76 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bagudu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.21bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.92bn

Lifetime cash saved₦442bn

NPV₦59.4bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.1 yr

Unlocked energy10.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity88.3 MWp

Capex₦97.4bn

Year-one energy value₦102bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.85tn

NPV₦835bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bagudu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 88.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦97.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦102bn/yr
NPV: ₦835bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bagudu pays back quickly

Of the 185,450 buildings in Bagudu with a modelled payback, 19.3% pay back inside five years and 4.1% inside three.

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How much of Bagudu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bagudu consume 16.6 GWh/yr but want 26.9 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bagudu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bagudu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 185,450 buildings with a modelled result out of 187,317 in Bagudu. 46,186 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,632 (4%)

Under 5 years35,794 (19%)

Under 7 years46,283 (25%)

Under 10 years59,225 (32%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%56,136 (30%)

Above 15%46,186 (25%)

Above 20%38,525 (21%)

Above 25%30,343 (16%)

CO₂ avoided

17.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.49 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

454k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bagudu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bagudu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	85,327	3,637	₦4.13bn	₦3.85bn	5%	16.6 yr
E	64,544	1,557	₦2.14bn	₦2.13bn	5%	16.9 yr
C	37,446	2,153	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	13%	7.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	184,698	5,985	₦7.25bn	₦6.96bn	5%	16.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,479	800	₦105m	₦105m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	693	360	₦417m	₦417m	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	316	150	₦416m	₦416m	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	120	48	₦19.9m	₦19.9m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	8	3	₦1.65m	₦1.65m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	3	1	₦876k	₦876k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	126,191	3,555	₦644m	₦644m	5%	17.6 yr
50 100m2	27,117	1,701	₦3.22bn	₦3.16bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	26,789	1,450	₦776m	₦771m	9%	13.1 yr
100 250m2	6,435	561	₦2.26bn	₦2.12bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	742	73	₦952m	₦868m	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	43	7	₦354m	₦354m	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	79,228	1,880	₦3.24bn	₦2.95bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	68,595	3,094	₦2.66bn	₦2.66bn	5%	16.1 yr
Dense Urban	25,110	2,069	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn	17%	6.4 yr
Urban	14,384	304	₦607m	₦607m	7%	15.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	132,937	3,381	₦589m	₦589m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	32,331	1,588	₦3.51bn	₦3.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	10,549	523	₦2.76bn	₦2.54bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,306	493	₦351m	₦351m	13%	7.1 yr
Residential Informal	3,575	0	₦42.5m	₦42.5m	17%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,479	800	₦105m	₦105m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	506	260	₦229m	₦229m	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	181	79	₦309m	₦309m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	127	57	₦53.8m	₦53.8m	47%	2.4 yr
School	82	40	₦21m	₦21m	47%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	49	26	₦115m	₦115m	45%	2.4 yr
Place Of Worship	43	18	₦2.09m	₦2.09m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	187,046	7,342	₦8.2bn	₦7.91bn
Farmyard	171	0	₦1.92m	₦1.92m
Farmland	44	0	₦759k	₦759k
Commercial	39	5	₦3.38m	₦3.38m
Retail	17	0	₦555k	₦555k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	186,447	6,901	₦7.49bn	₦7.2bn	5%	16.1 yr
SME High	548	295	₦298m	₦298m	45%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	322	151	₦417m	₦417m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	132,956	3,386	₦590m	₦590m
2.0	21,281	1,121	₦2.59bn	₦2.56bn
1.0	16,489	1,408	₦1.3bn	₦1.26bn
3.0	12,009	1,033	₦3.28bn	₦3.07bn
4.0	4,579	399	₦432m	₦432m
5.0	2	0	₦2.63m	₦2.63m
6.0	1	0	₦9.22m	₦9.22m