Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Shanga, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Shanga has 110,225 buildings with a viable rooftop and 453 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.73bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

110,225

Usable roof area

2.07 km²

453 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.73bn/yr

7.62 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shanga

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.73bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.13bn

Lifetime cash saved₦445bn

NPV₦64bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback15.9 yr

Unlocked energy9.72 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity76.6 MWp

Capex₦82.7bn

Year-one energy value₦89.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.21tn

NPV₦732bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Shanga's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 76.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦82.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦89.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦732bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shanga pays back quickly

Of the 109,566 buildings in Shanga with a modelled payback, 20.1% pay back inside five years and 4.9% inside three.

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How much of Shanga's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shanga consume 16.6 GWh/yr but want 26.3 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shanga

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shanga actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 109,566 buildings with a modelled result out of 110,225 in Shanga. 24,730 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,331 (5%)

Under 5 years21,995 (20%)

Under 7 years24,746 (23%)

Under 10 years31,112 (28%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,058 (25%)

Above 15%24,730 (22%)

Above 20%22,787 (21%)

Above 25%20,054 (18%)

CO₂ avoided

16.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.51 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.72 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

355k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shanga.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shanga

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	57,672	1,958	₦3.1bn	₦2.92bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	45,477	3,332	₦5.16bn	₦4.75bn	5%	15.9 yr
C	7,076	9	₦467m	₦467m	5%	16.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	106,255	2,287	₦6bn	₦5.41bn	5%	16.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,967	2,340	₦269m	₦269m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	775	461	₦641m	₦641m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	189	175	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	29	26	₦9.32m	₦9.32m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	10	10	₦14.8m	₦14.8m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	80,415	2,843	₦380m	₦380m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	15,777	960	₦501m	₦500m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	12,062	989	₦1.72bn	₦1.63bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,640	376	₦2.02bn	₦1.94bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	297	112	₦2.36bn	₦1.95bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	34	19	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	48,153	399	₦3.32bn	₦2.87bn	5%	17.9 yr
Rural	40,804	2,394	₦2.33bn	₦2.23bn	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	10,834	2,315	₦2.18bn	₦2.14bn	11%	8.6 yr
Urban	10,434	191	₦896m	₦896m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	83,747	1,399	₦250m	₦250m	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Small	16,039	582	₦1.84bn	₦1.75bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	6,469	306	₦3.91bn	₦3.41bn	19%	5.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,967	2,340	₦269m	₦269m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	382	282	₦225m	₦225m	63%	1.6 yr
Market	196	6	₦4.65m	₦4.65m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	120	113	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	93	79	₦86.7m	₦86.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	60	56	₦79.5m	₦79.5m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	44	38	₦189m	₦189m	55%	1.9 yr
School	41	39	₦24.4m	₦24.4m	83%	1.1 yr
Clinic	30	29	₦25.6m	₦25.6m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	109,931	5,263	₦8.66bn	₦8.07bn
Farmland	228	0	₦9.62m	₦9.62m
Industrial	66	36	₦53m	₦53m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	109,553	4,755	₦6.62bn	₦6.03bn	5%	15.9 yr
SME High	474	360	₦312m	₦312m	63%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	198	184	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	83,834	1,467	₦252m	₦252m
2.0	11,609	795	₦1.92bn	₦1.85bn
1.0	10,022	2,302	₦947m	₦853m
3.0	4,689	693	₦5.51bn	₦5.08bn
4.0	43	32	₦73.3m	₦73.3m
5.0	26	8	₦15.9m	₦15.9m
6.0	2	2	₦4.78m	₦4.78m