Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Wasagu-Danko, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Wasagu-Danko has 187,893 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.25 GWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

187,893

Usable roof area

5.66 km²

1.25 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.2bn/yr

16.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Wasagu-Danko

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦19.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.07tn

NPV₦161bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.6 yr

Unlocked energy21.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity131 MWp

Capex₦142bn

Year-one energy value₦151bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.2tn

NPV₦1.24tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Wasagu-Danko's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 131 MWp
Capital cost: ₦142bn
Year 1 savings: ₦151bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.24tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Wasagu-Danko pays back quickly

Of the 185,302 buildings in Wasagu-Danko with a modelled payback, 32.0% pay back inside five years and 11.3% inside three.

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How much of Wasagu-Danko's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Wasagu-Danko consume 35.2 GWh/yr but want 56.6 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Wasagu-Danko

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Wasagu-Danko actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 185,302 buildings with a modelled result out of 187,893 in Wasagu-Danko. 71,262 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,015 (11%)

Under 5 years59,310 (32%)

Under 7 years71,333 (38%)

Under 10 years85,510 (46%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%79,754 (42%)

Above 15%71,262 (38%)

Above 20%62,888 (33%)

Above 25%53,099 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

39.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

566k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Wasagu-Danko.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Wasagu-Danko

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	84,041	7,581	₦5.32bn	₦5.28bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	72,246	5,558	₦5.77bn	₦5.63bn	7%	14.4 yr
C	31,606	8,523	₦9.09bn	₦9bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	185,018	19,329	₦16.2bn	₦16bn	7%	13.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,153	1,033	₦171m	₦171m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	909	707	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	425	328	₦2.09bn	₦2.05bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	378	260	₦96.2m	₦96.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	9	5	₦13.3m	₦13.3m	73%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦163k	₦163k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	99,403	7,391	₦727m	₦727m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	40,742	4,394	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	35,672	5,768	₦4.06bn	₦3.99bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	10,347	3,310	₦7.07bn	₦6.91bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,700	783	₦5.63bn	₦5.61bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	29	16	₦1.56bn	₦1.52bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	74,999	1,745	₦3.61bn	₦3.39bn	5%	16.9 yr
Rural	50,488	5,507	₦2.81bn	₦2.81bn	9%	13.6 yr
Dense Urban	36,120	9,754	₦9.6bn	₦9.53bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	26,286	4,656	₦4.17bn	₦4.17bn	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	121,120	8,709	₦867m	₦867m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	39,677	5,529	₦4.55bn	₦4.45bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	9,906	2,213	₦9.19bn	₦9.04bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	7,606	1,855	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	6,451	819	₦357m	₦357m	25%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,153	1,033	₦171m	₦171m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	547	433	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	61%	1.6 yr
Institutional	343	252	₦833m	₦833m	57%	1.9 yr
Apartment	183	145	₦119m	₦119m	61%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	160	129	₦224m	₦224m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	133	88	₦21.7m	₦21.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	125	107	₦118m	₦118m	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	187,893	21,662	₦20.2bn	₦19.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	186,787	20,789	₦16.8bn	₦16.6bn	9%	13.6 yr
SME High	672	540	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	61%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	434	333	₦2.11bn	₦2.06bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	120,132	8,553	₦856m	₦856m
2.0	23,069	3,609	₦3.48bn	₦3.41bn
3.0	19,988	4,650	₦11.9bn	₦11.7bn
1.0	15,476	2,322	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn
4.0	9,153	2,478	₦2.05bn	₦2.05bn
5.0	73	50	₦595m	₦595m
6.0	2	0	₦13m	₦13m