Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Maiyama, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Maiyama has 96,019 buildings with a viable rooftop and 606 MWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

96,019

Usable roof area

2.75 km²

606 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.5bn/yr

14 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.1 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Maiyama

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦849bn

NPV₦135bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback7.1 yr

Unlocked energy14.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity68.8 MWp

Capex₦74.7bn

Year-one energy value₦79.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.81tn

NPV₦657bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Maiyama's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 68.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦74.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦79.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦657bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Maiyama pays back quickly

Of the 95,517 buildings in Maiyama with a modelled payback, 39.8% pay back inside five years and 14.6% inside three.

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How much of Maiyama's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Maiyama consume 24 GWh/yr but want 38.9 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Maiyama

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Maiyama actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 95,517 buildings with a modelled result out of 96,019 in Maiyama. 47,173 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,944 (15%)

Under 5 years38,046 (40%)

Under 7 years47,249 (49%)

Under 10 years56,889 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%53,519 (56%)

Above 15%47,173 (49%)

Above 20%40,396 (42%)

Above 25%33,441 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

31.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

227k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Maiyama.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Maiyama

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	39,981	5,957	₦7.17bn	₦6.96bn	11%	9.1 yr
E	34,024	4,839	₦5.46bn	₦5.42bn	9%	9.4 yr
C	22,014	3,143	₦3.86bn	₦3.86bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	94,390	12,389	₦14.5bn	₦14.2bn	13%	7.6 yr
Commercial Retail	999	961	₦169m	₦169m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	398	377	₦654m	₦654m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	219	204	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	7	2	₦750k	₦750k	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	6	6	₦1.71m	₦1.71m	45%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	52,152	5,843	₦635m	₦635m	7%	15.1 yr
50 100m2	20,893	3,848	₦5.38bn	₦5.37bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	17,931	2,618	₦898m	₦898m	17%	6.4 yr
100 250m2	4,646	1,431	₦5.71bn	₦5.48bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	380	187	₦2.59bn	₦2.57bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	17	12	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	75%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	32,245	3,918	₦5.4bn	₦5.4bn	21%	5.4 yr
Rural	29,246	5,909	₦4.76bn	₦4.64bn	15%	6.6 yr
Unclassified	19,063	1,115	₦2.75bn	₦2.66bn	5%	16.6 yr
Urban	15,465	2,997	₦3.58bn	₦3.53bn	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	50,994	6,715	₦621m	₦621m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	20,135	4,289	₦6.09bn	₦6.05bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	13,605	1	₦212m	₦212m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	8,738	1,176	₦7.24bn	₦7.03bn	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	999	961	₦169m	₦169m	67%	1.6 yr
Residential Informal	916	208	₦288m	₦288m	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial	215	211	₦322m	₦322m	69%	1.4 yr
Institutional	113	105	₦700m	₦699m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	73	69	₦109m	₦109m	89%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	52	52	₦165m	₦165m	67%	1.6 yr
School	52	48	₦40.1m	₦40.1m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	49	46	₦340m	₦339m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	96,019	13,939	₦16.5bn	₦16.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	95,533	13,472	₦14.8bn	₦14.5bn	13%	7.4 yr
SME High	267	263	₦488m	₦488m	69%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	219	204	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	51,026	6,743	₦623m	₦623m
2.0	16,047	2,811	₦4.48bn	₦4.38bn
3.0	10,558	2,435	₦9.35bn	₦9.19bn
4.0	10,164	101	₦485m	₦485m
1.0	8,216	1,841	₦1.4bn	₦1.39bn
5.0	8	8	₦168m	₦168m