Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Jega, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Jega has 104,878 buildings with a viable rooftop and 959 MWp of roof capacity. 19% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

104,878

Usable roof area

4.32 km²

959 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.5bn/yr

32.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jega

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.87tn

NPV₦295bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy26.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity112 MWp

Capex₦117bn

Year-one energy value₦113bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.37tn

NPV₦917bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Jega's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 112 MWp
Capital cost: ₦117bn
Year 1 savings: ₦113bn/yr
NPV: ₦917bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jega pays back quickly

Of the 104,384 buildings in Jega with a modelled payback, 52.0% pay back inside five years and 18.5% inside three.

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How much of Jega's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jega consume 60.9 GWh/yr but want 87.3 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jega

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jega actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 104,384 buildings with a modelled result out of 104,878 in Jega. 68,646 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years19,347 (19%)

Under 5 years54,305 (52%)

Under 7 years68,745 (66%)

Under 10 years80,179 (77%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%76,904 (73%)

Above 15%68,646 (65%)

Above 20%58,255 (56%)

Above 25%46,514 (44%)

CO₂ avoided

65.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

290k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jega.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jega

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	39,189	6,610	₦13.2bn	₦12.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	27,929	5,190	₦8.48bn	₦7.42bn	11%	8.9 yr
E	26,147	3,394	₦7.01bn	₦6.24bn	15%	6.6 yr
C	11,613	4,339	₦9.91bn	₦9.4bn	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	100,454	16,887	₦30.8bn	₦28.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,377	1,332	₦403m	₦403m	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial General	1,674	1,047	₦5.73bn	₦5.51bn	47%	2.1 yr
Anchor	306	233	₦1.32bn	₦1.31bn	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	27	18	₦305m	₦305m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	25	10	₦4.39m	₦4.39m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	7	4	₦5.67m	₦5.67m	51%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	4	1	₦13m	₦13m	37%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	3	0	₦1.09m	₦1.09m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦13m	₦13m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,225	7,459	₦985m	₦965m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	24,342	4,947	₦7.3bn	₦6.98bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	19,112	3,348	₦1.42bn	₦1.41bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	11,202	2,954	₦12.7bn	₦11.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,930	787	₦13.5bn	₦12.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	67	38	₦2.7bn	₦2.5bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	39,836	7,214	₦13.1bn	₦12.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	24,491	5,812	₦13.3bn	₦12.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	21,237	3,673	₦4.76bn	₦4.13bn	13%	8.1 yr
Unclassified	12,621	1,597	₦5.99bn	₦4.85bn	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	6,693	1,237	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	15%	7.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	44,819	7,240	₦708m	₦708m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Small	21,762	5,301	₦8.14bn	₦7.79bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	21,669	1,771	₦1.26bn	₦1.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	9,738	2,575	₦20.6bn	₦18.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,466	0	₦83.8m	₦83.8m	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,377	1,332	₦403m	₦403m	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	829	403	₦2.33bn	₦2.32bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial	630	496	₦2.97bn	₦2.77bn	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	160	122	₦925m	₦925m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	102	76	₦211m	₦211m	87%	1.1 yr
School	85	62	₦102m	₦102m	81%	1.4 yr
Unknown	57	29	₦130m	₦130m	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	104,878	19,533	₦38.5bn	₦35.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	103,073	18,377	₦31.6bn	₦29.1bn	23%	4.9 yr
SME High	1,473	906	₦5.35bn	₦5.14bn	47%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	332	250	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	41,549	7,121	₦682m	₦682m
2.0	21,873	4,267	₦6.45bn	₦5.67bn
3.0	19,267	4,987	₦23.4bn	₦22bn
1.0	10,883	1,813	₦1.54bn	₦1.43bn
4.0	10,558	921	₦2.24bn	₦2.05bn
5.0	670	369	₦2.49bn	₦2.35bn
6.0	78	55	₦1.77bn	₦1.7bn