Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Koko-Besse, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Koko-Besse has 97,963 buildings with a viable rooftop and 600 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.59bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

97,963

Usable roof area

2.73 km²

600 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.59bn/yr

4.34 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Koko-Besse

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.59bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦363bn

NPV₦49.3bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.6 yr

Unlocked energy8.95 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity62.4 MWp

Capex₦66.8bn

Year-one energy value₦65.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.1tn

NPV₦531bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Koko-Besse's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 62.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦66.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦65.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦531bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Koko-Besse pays back quickly

Of the 97,230 buildings in Koko-Besse with a modelled payback, 28.5% pay back inside five years and 3.9% inside three.

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How much of Koko-Besse's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Koko-Besse consume 15.3 GWh/yr but want 24.3 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Koko-Besse

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Koko-Besse actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 97,230 buildings with a modelled result out of 97,963 in Koko-Besse. 36,663 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,816 (4%)

Under 5 years27,746 (29%)

Under 7 years36,737 (38%)

Under 10 years45,021 (46%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,583 (43%)

Above 15%36,663 (37%)

Above 20%30,079 (31%)

Above 25%23,346 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

14.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.47 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.95 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

263k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Koko-Besse.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Koko-Besse

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	35,212	298	₦1.19bn	₦1.04bn	5%	15.9 yr
E	27,796	871	₦1.46bn	₦1.42bn	7%	15.6 yr
C	25,742	1,733	₦3.54bn	₦3.54bn	19%	5.4 yr
B	9,213	64	₦403m	₦403m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	93,867	1,730	₦5.16bn	₦4.98bn	7%	14.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,485	560	₦141m	₦141m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,358	513	₦681m	₦681m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	204	130	₦579m	₦579m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	33	23	₦7.23m	₦7.23m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	16	10	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	59,188	1,115	₦255m	₦254m	5%	16.6 yr
50 100m2	17,462	712	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	15,536	564	₦349m	₦324m	13%	7.4 yr
100 250m2	5,192	451	₦2.02bn	₦1.96bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	567	117	₦2.02bn	₦1.92bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	18	7	₦699m	₦699m	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	30,496	106	₦487m	₦463m	7%	15.6 yr
Urban Centre	23,001	893	₦2.68bn	₦2.68bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	19,968	386	₦1.35bn	₦1.24bn	5%	17.4 yr
Urban	15,852	374	₦1.04bn	₦982m	9%	13.4 yr
Dense Urban	8,646	1,207	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	15%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	54,565	732	₦154m	₦154m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	16,583	639	₦1.25bn	₦1.23bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	11,251	0	₦195m	₦194m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	5,777	31	₦167m	₦167m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	5,656	328	₦3.4bn	₦3.23bn	19%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,485	560	₦141m	₦141m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	721	118	₦279m	₦279m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	301	118	₦285m	₦285m	37%	2.9 yr
Market	206	204	₦27.1m	₦27.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	122	82	₦374m	₦374m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	68	47	₦58m	₦58m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	29	₦190m	₦190m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	97,963	2,966	₦6.59bn	₦6.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	96,729	2,594	₦5.44bn	₦5.25bn	7%	13.9 yr
SME High	1,022	236	₦564m	₦564m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	212	136	₦581m	₦581m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	54,589	743	₦155m	₦155m
2.0	15,637	791	₦1.27bn	₦1.25bn
3.0	10,390	713	₦3.99bn	₦3.85bn
4.0	9,525	58	₦492m	₦490m
1.0	7,300	628	₦403m	₦379m
5.0	500	32	₦228m	₦228m
6.0	22	1	₦46.6m	₦46.6m