Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Suru, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Suru has 89,035 buildings with a viable rooftop and 597 MWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

89,035

Usable roof area

2.71 km²

597 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23.1bn/yr

20.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Suru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.14tn

NPV₦178bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy13.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity84.9 MWp

Capex₦91.2bn

Year-one energy value₦97.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.64tn

NPV₦802bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Suru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 84.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦91.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦97.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦802bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Suru pays back quickly

Of the 88,598 buildings in Suru with a modelled payback, 33.7% pay back inside five years and 10.0% inside three.

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How much of Suru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Suru consume 33 GWh/yr but want 46.9 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Suru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Suru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 88,598 buildings with a modelled result out of 89,035 in Suru. 36,725 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,878 (10%)

Under 5 years29,870 (34%)

Under 7 years36,786 (42%)

Under 10 years46,183 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,708 (48%)

Above 15%36,725 (41%)

Above 20%31,574 (35%)

Above 25%26,637 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

38.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

281k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Suru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Suru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	38,554	3,674	₦8.72bn	₦8.48bn	9%	13.6 yr
E	29,009	1,869	₦6.32bn	₦5.3bn	7%	13.9 yr
C	21,472	3,272	₦8.02bn	₦8bn	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	88,147	8,056	₦19.1bn	₦17.8bn	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial General	347	275	₦749m	₦749m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	281	254	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	166	141	₦33.3m	₦33.3m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	83	78	₦28.8m	₦28.8m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	11	11	₦7.85m	₦7.85m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	52,242	3,709	₦517m	₦517m	7%	15.1 yr
50 100m2	17,340	2,103	₦3.7bn	₦3.58bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	13,325	1,308	₦564m	₦544m	11%	8.6 yr
100 250m2	5,417	1,326	₦6.56bn	₦5.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	675	337	₦7.17bn	₦6.78bn	39%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	36	32	₦4.55bn	₦4.55bn	89%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	32,910	3,227	₦3.51bn	₦3.15bn	9%	9.9 yr
Urban	21,348	2,612	₦10.8bn	₦10.5bn	9%	9.6 yr
Unclassified	19,928	881	₦4.39bn	₦3.81bn	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	14,849	2,095	₦4.32bn	₦4.31bn	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	51,588	3,500	₦436m	₦436m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	20,836	2,588	₦4.17bn	₦4.03bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	11,250	1,966	₦14.4bn	₦13.3bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,740	0	₦17.4m	₦17.4m	13%	7.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,733	2	₦69.7m	₦69.7m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	177	162	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	166	141	₦33.3m	₦33.3m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	104	63	₦375m	₦375m	43%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	95	87	₦156m	₦156m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	72	62	₦152m	₦152m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	61	54	₦268m	₦268m	57%	1.9 yr
School	58	52	₦44.2m	₦44.2m	85%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	89,013	8,815	₦23.1bn	₦21.8bn
Industrial	22	0	₦122k	₦122k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	88,567	8,425	₦19.4bn	₦18.1bn	9%	9.6 yr
Enterprise	292	265	₦3.13bn	₦3.13bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	176	125	₦527m	₦527m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	51,602	3,515	₦437m	₦437m
2.0	15,813	2,077	₦4.68bn	₦3.85bn
3.0	10,401	2,201	₦16.4bn	₦16bn
1.0	7,337	948	₦982m	₦960m
4.0	3,811	48	₦376m	₦376m
5.0	43	16	₦71.6m	₦71.6m
6.0	28	10	₦99m	₦99m