Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Yauri, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Yauri has 57,687 buildings with a viable rooftop and 556 MWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.16bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

57,687

Usable roof area

2.5 km²

556 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.16bn/yr

5.68 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.6 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yauri

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.16bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.06bn

Lifetime cash saved₦400bn

NPV₦58bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.6 yr

Unlocked energy9.81 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity46 MWp

Capex₦45.4bn

Year-one energy value₦37.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.75tn

NPV₦292bn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Yauri's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 46 MWp
Capital cost: ₦45.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦37.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦292bn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yauri pays back quickly

Of the 53,523 buildings in Yauri with a modelled payback, 30.8% pay back inside five years and 11.3% inside three.

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How much of Yauri's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yauri consume 16 GWh/yr but want 25.8 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yauri

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yauri actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 53,523 buildings with a modelled result out of 57,687 in Yauri. 24,803 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,058 (11%)

Under 5 years16,506 (31%)

Under 7 years24,867 (46%)

Under 10 years34,853 (65%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,916 (57%)

Above 15%24,803 (43%)

Above 20%18,279 (32%)

Above 25%14,040 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

15.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.74 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.81 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

97.5k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yauri.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yauri

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	32,055	1,088	₦2.61bn	₦2.6bn	11%	7.6 yr
C	10,500	2,807	₦3.09bn	₦3.01bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	8,615	822	₦921m	₦921m	9%	13.4 yr
D	6,517	561	₦536m	₦522m	7%	14.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	52,467	2,731	₦3.92bn	₦3.82bn	11%	8.4 yr
Commercial Retail	3,117	1,840	₦241m	₦241m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	1,779	534	₦2bn	₦2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	174	110	₦835m	₦835m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	116	42	₦153m	₦153m	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	32	20	₦6.31m	₦6.31m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦110k	₦110k	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦1.03m	₦1.03m	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	25,287	2,247	₦256m	₦251m	7%	14.6 yr
50 100m2	12,599	943	₦767m	₦752m	17%	6.1 yr
30 50m2	11,553	996	₦267m	₦267m	13%	8.1 yr
100 250m2	6,975	853	₦2.58bn	₦2.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,253	230	₦2.53bn	₦2.53bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	20	9	₦754m	₦754m	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	33,989	1,313	₦2.48bn	₦2.48bn	13%	7.4 yr
Urban	16,969	3,497	₦2.26bn	₦2.26bn	15%	7.1 yr
Unclassified	5,644	405	₦1.98bn	₦1.89bn	7%	14.1 yr
Rural	1,085	63	₦435m	₦429m	13%	7.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	15,354	813	₦102m	₦102m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Formal	11,412	0	₦63.7m	₦63.7m	9%	8.6 yr
Residential Informal	10,589	93	₦128m	₦128m	11%	8.1 yr
Residential Small	9,366	1,098	₦798m	₦779m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	5,679	727	₦2.82bn	₦2.74bn	19%	5.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,117	1,840	₦241m	₦241m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,081	305	₦817m	₦817m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	535	149	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	114	41	₦151m	₦151m	39%	2.6 yr
Institutional	104	69	₦692m	₦692m	53%	1.9 yr
Unknown	68	22	₦32.7m	₦32.7m	31%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	58	38	₦65.9m	₦65.9m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	57,257	5,207	₦7.02bn	₦6.94bn
Farmland	420	64	₦129m	₦120m
Commercial	5	5	₦1.95m	₦1.95m
Industrial	5	2	₦752k	₦752k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	55,789	4,674	₦4.34bn	₦4.24bn	11%	7.9 yr
SME High	1,618	455	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	280	149	₦972m	₦972m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	15,285	816	₦102m	₦102m
4.0	13,886	134	₦956m	₦953m
2.0	10,896	856	₦1.05bn	₦965m
3.0	10,091	1,074	₦3.8bn	₦3.8bn
1.0	6,857	2,328	₦369m	₦364m
5.0	606	61	₦673m	₦673m
6.0	66	9	₦204m	₦204m