Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Augie, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Augie has 60,260 buildings with a viable rooftop and 357 MWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.74bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

60,260

Usable roof area

1.62 km²

357 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.74bn/yr

6.99 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Augie

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.74bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.39bn

Lifetime cash saved₦387bn

NPV₦60.5bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy5.94 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity35.4 MWp

Capex₦38.7bn

Year-one energy value₦42.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.03tn

NPV₦350bn

Median IRR113%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Augie's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 35.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦38.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦42.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦350bn
Median IRR: 113%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Augie pays back quickly

Of the 60,130 buildings in Augie with a modelled payback, 28.9% pay back inside five years and 9.8% inside three.

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How much of Augie's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Augie consume 11.5 GWh/yr but want 17.5 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Augie

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Augie actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 60,130 buildings with a modelled result out of 60,260 in Augie. 20,950 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,883 (10%)

Under 5 years17,384 (29%)

Under 7 years20,985 (35%)

Under 10 years30,797 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%27,181 (45%)

Above 15%20,950 (35%)

Above 20%18,421 (31%)

Above 25%14,968 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

13.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.83 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.94 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

112k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Augie.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Augie

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	33,549	3,226	₦3.65bn	₦3.53bn	9%	9.9 yr
E	19,384	1,231	₦2.04bn	₦2bn	9%	13.6 yr
C	6,840	1,249	₦1.68bn	₦1.5bn	17%	6.4 yr
B	461	240	₦364m	₦364m	49%	2.1 yr
A	26	0	₦5.35m	₦5.35m	15%	6.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	59,809	5,515	₦6.11bn	₦5.78bn	9%	9.9 yr
Anchor	213	205	₦1.24bn	₦1.23bn	83%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	124	117	₦347m	₦347m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	103	99	₦36m	₦36m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	7	7	₦1.74m	₦1.74m	71%	1.4 yr
Industrial	4	3	₦879k	₦879k	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	33,969	2,340	₦366m	₦343m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	12,797	1,270	₦423m	₦423m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	10,910	1,485	₦1.9bn	₦1.71bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,219	652	₦1.9bn	₦1.86bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	347	187	₦2.26bn	₦2.17bn	55%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	18	12	₦891m	₦882m	91%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	26,804	3,925	₦3.49bn	₦3.47bn	11%	8.9 yr
Unclassified	18,553	965	₦2.6bn	₦2.34bn	7%	14.9 yr
Rural	12,428	435	₦991m	₦923m	9%	13.4 yr
Dense Urban	2,414	560	₦548m	₦548m	19%	5.6 yr
Urban Centre	61	61	₦114m	₦114m	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	38,349	2,426	₦302m	₦302m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	14,069	2,164	₦2.25bn	₦2.06bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	5,910	743	₦3.53bn	₦3.38bn	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,481	182	₦30.2m	₦30.2m	19%	5.6 yr
Institutional	138	129	₦341m	₦341m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	75	74	₦178m	₦178m	95%	1.1 yr
School	50	49	₦47.8m	₦47.8m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	47	44	₦480m	₦480m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	35	34	₦11.8m	₦11.8m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	35	34	₦5.98m	₦5.98m	69%	1.6 yr
Clinic	34	32	₦81m	₦81m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	10	10	₦29.4m	₦29.4m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	60,253	5,939	₦7.6bn	₦7.25bn
Industrial	7	7	₦141m	₦140m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	60,026	5,721	₦6.46bn	₦6.12bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	216	207	₦1.24bn	₦1.23bn	83%	1.1 yr
SME High	18	18	₦40.8m	₦40.8m	69%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	38,363	2,439	₦302m	₦302m
2.0	10,916	1,659	₦1.81bn	₦1.81bn
1.0	5,803	551	₦643m	₦433m
3.0	4,971	1,259	₦4.94bn	₦4.8bn
4.0	207	38	₦43.6m	₦43.6m