Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Aleiro, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Aleiro has 32,821 buildings with a viable rooftop and 343 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.01bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

32,821

Usable roof area

1.54 km²

343 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.01bn/yr

5.48 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.6 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Aleiro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.01bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.83bn

Lifetime cash saved₦311bn

NPV₦48.1bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.6 yr

Unlocked energy6.13 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity26.1 MWp

Capex₦26.9bn

Year-one energy value₦24.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.17tn

NPV₦199bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Aleiro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 26.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦26.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦24.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦199bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Aleiro pays back quickly

Of the 31,964 buildings in Aleiro with a modelled payback, 36.9% pay back inside five years and 11.8% inside three.

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How much of Aleiro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Aleiro consume 11.2 GWh/yr but want 17.4 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Aleiro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Aleiro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 31,964 buildings with a modelled result out of 32,821 in Aleiro. 16,473 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,763 (12%)

Under 5 years11,792 (37%)

Under 7 years16,519 (52%)

Under 10 years22,662 (71%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,199 (65%)

Above 15%16,473 (50%)

Above 20%13,086 (40%)

Above 25%9,558 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

11.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.57 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.13 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

52.7k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Aleiro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Aleiro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	10,237	1,619	₦2.7bn	₦2.62bn	23%	4.9 yr
B	8,337	610	₦722m	₦718m	13%	7.1 yr
D	7,505	692	₦1.03bn	₦995m	11%	9.1 yr
E	6,742	618	₦1.56bn	₦1.5bn	11%	9.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	31,774	2,800	₦3.42bn	₦3.27bn	15%	6.9 yr
Commercial General	489	310	₦1.1bn	₦1.08bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	408	313	₦68.8m	₦68.8m	69%	1.6 yr
Anchor	146	113	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	4	3	₦5.82m	₦5.82m	63%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	13,808	1,220	₦154m	₦154m	7%	13.9 yr
50 100m2	8,585	835	₦757m	₦725m	23%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	5,611	538	₦177m	₦169m	13%	7.9 yr
100 250m2	3,986	671	₦1.73bn	₦1.63bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	787	255	₦1.89bn	₦1.87bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	44	20	₦1.31bn	₦1.28bn	31%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	11,935	1,226	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	17%	5.9 yr
Urban	7,459	670	₦2.46bn	₦2.46bn	15%	7.1 yr
Rural	5,540	577	₦671m	₦593m	11%	9.1 yr
Dense Urban	4,145	81	₦135m	₦135m	13%	8.1 yr
Unclassified	3,742	985	₦1.43bn	₦1.33bn	15%	7.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	13,964	1,140	₦129m	₦129m	9%	13.1 yr
Residential Small	8,626	990	₦752m	₦712m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	6,113	146	₦128m	₦128m	15%	6.1 yr
Residential	3,071	524	₦2.41bn	₦2.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	408	313	₦68.8m	₦68.8m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial	340	211	₦834m	₦815m	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	80	64	₦973m	₦973m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	59	34	₦84.7m	₦84.7m	43%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	41	32	₦70.7m	₦70.7m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	33	26	₦303m	₦299m	57%	1.9 yr
School	33	25	₦33.8m	₦33.8m	91%	1.1 yr
Clinic	20	17	₦73.1m	₦73.1m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	32,821	3,539	₦6.01bn	₦5.83bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,275	3,181	₦3.68bn	₦3.52bn	15%	6.9 yr
SME High	400	245	₦923m	₦905m	47%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	146	113	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	13,945	1,145	₦129m	₦129m
3.0	8,031	1,203	₦4bn	₦3.88bn
2.0	6,578	560	₦782m	₦773m
4.0	2,100	149	₦525m	₦525m
1.0	2,046	471	₦285m	₦255m
5.0	90	8	₦63.7m	₦63.7m
6.0	31	3	₦227m	₦209m