Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Fakai, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Fakai has 74,589 buildings with a viable rooftop and 372 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.25bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

74,589

Usable roof area

1.69 km²

372 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.25bn/yr

7.49 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Fakai

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.25bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.99bn

Lifetime cash saved₦424bn

NPV₦63.9bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.4 yr

Unlocked energy7.95 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity55.9 MWp

Capex₦60.6bn

Year-one energy value₦65.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.08tn

NPV₦533bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Fakai's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 55.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦60.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦65.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦533bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Fakai pays back quickly

Of the 73,957 buildings in Fakai with a modelled payback, 25.1% pay back inside five years and 6.5% inside three.

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How much of Fakai's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Fakai consume 14.5 GWh/yr but want 22.4 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Fakai

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Fakai actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 73,957 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,589 in Fakai. 21,481 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,788 (6%)

Under 5 years18,557 (25%)

Under 7 years21,494 (29%)

Under 10 years25,505 (34%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,805 (32%)

Above 15%21,481 (29%)

Above 20%19,413 (26%)

Above 25%16,899 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

15.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.75 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.95 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

251k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Fakai.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Fakai

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	38,511	2,871	₦3.26bn	₦3.2bn	7%	15.9 yr
E	26,586	598	₦2.58bn	₦2.44bn	5%	16.1 yr
C	9,492	1,307	₦2.41bn	₦2.35bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	73,716	3,985	₦5.68bn	₦5.6bn	7%	15.6 yr
Commercial Retail	297	283	₦47.7m	₦47.7m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	231	193	₦1.6bn	₦1.47bn	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	215	195	₦860m	₦806m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	125	115	₦58.8m	₦58.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	5	5	₦3.15m	₦3.15m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,052	2,058	₦253m	₦253m	5%	17.6 yr
30 50m2	13,358	854	₦401m	₦401m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	11,054	1,178	₦1.55bn	₦1.54bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,824	523	₦1.95bn	₦1.89bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	276	144	₦2.27bn	₦2.22bn	55%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	25	19	₦1.83bn	₦1.68bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	40,003	1,213	₦3.03bn	₦2.87bn	5%	17.1 yr
Rural	24,543	1,898	₦1.3bn	₦1.29bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,391	1,401	₦3.16bn	₦3.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,652	264	₦759m	₦759m	9%	13.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	53,212	2,336	₦273m	₦273m	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Small	13,494	1,232	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,428	417	₦3.56bn	₦3.49bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,582	0	₦40.4m	₦40.4m	19%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	297	283	₦47.7m	₦47.7m	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	163	140	₦1.58bn	₦1.49bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	97	96	₦262m	₦262m	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	88	73	₦96.2m	₦96.2m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	52	41	₦213m	₦172m	55%	1.9 yr
School	48	42	₦47.3m	₦47.3m	83%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	43	40	₦15m	₦15m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	41	38	₦4.16m	₦4.16m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	74,589	4,776	₦8.25bn	₦7.99bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	74,253	4,479	₦6.11bn	₦6.04bn	7%	15.4 yr
Enterprise	234	196	₦1.6bn	₦1.47bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	102	101	₦537m	₦483m	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	53,242	2,363	₦275m	₦275m
2.0	8,770	870	₦1.68bn	₦1.63bn
1.0	6,848	671	₦646m	₦639m
3.0	3,594	844	₦5.15bn	₦5.01bn
4.0	2,132	25	₦298m	₦298m
5.0	3	3	₦190m	₦136m