Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Sakaba, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Sakaba has 64,260 buildings with a viable rooftop and 345 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.96bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

64,260

Usable roof area

1.57 km²

345 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.96bn/yr

4.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sakaba

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.96bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.95bn

Lifetime cash saved₦267bn

NPV₦39.6bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.4 yr

Unlocked energy5.81 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity42.4 MWp

Capex₦46.1bn

Year-one energy value₦49.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.35tn

NPV₦407bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Sakaba's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 42.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦46.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦49.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦407bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sakaba pays back quickly

Of the 63,663 buildings in Sakaba with a modelled payback, 23.2% pay back inside five years and 4.8% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Sakaba's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sakaba consume 9 GWh/yr but want 14.8 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Sakaba

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sakaba actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 63,663 buildings with a modelled result out of 64,260 in Sakaba. 18,603 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,044 (5%)

Under 5 years14,800 (23%)

Under 7 years18,626 (29%)

Under 10 years23,200 (36%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,591 (34%)

Above 15%18,603 (29%)

Above 20%15,796 (25%)

Above 25%12,507 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

9.94 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.27 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.81 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

199k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sakaba.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sakaba

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	35,404	1,404	₦2.19bn	₦2.19bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	25,977	1,622	₦2.68bn	₦2.67bn	7%	15.6 yr
C	2,879	12	₦85.3m	₦85.3m	5%	17.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	63,101	1,977	₦3.49bn	₦3.47bn	7%	15.4 yr
Commercial General	616	591	₦506m	₦506m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	241	214	₦42.2m	₦42.2m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	240	205	₦910m	₦910m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	57	46	₦11.7m	₦11.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	5	5	₦5.09m	₦5.09m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	38,693	968	₦176m	₦176m	5%	17.9 yr
30 50m2	13,542	521	₦272m	₦272m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	9,611	797	₦826m	₦826m	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,077	569	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	325	176	₦1.71bn	₦1.7bn	63%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	12	7	₦542m	₦542m	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	29,595	230	₦1.19bn	₦1.18bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	23,815	1,253	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	8,357	1,093	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	19%	5.6 yr
Urban	2,493	462	₦682m	₦682m	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	43,193	841	₦144m	₦144m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	12,187	649	₦839m	₦839m	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	3,568	382	₦2.3bn	₦2.28bn	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,125	40	₦79.2m	₦79.2m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,025	63	₦126m	₦126m	19%	5.6 yr
Market	247	247	₦58.6m	₦58.6m	69%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	241	214	₦42.2m	₦42.2m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial	219	212	₦243m	₦243m	69%	1.6 yr
Institutional	146	124	₦537m	₦537m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	77	67	₦106m	₦106m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	63	52	₦266m	₦266m	53%	2.1 yr
School	49	42	₦26.9m	₦26.9m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	64,230	3,038	₦4.96bn	₦4.95bn
Farmland	30	0	₦46.1k	₦46.1k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	63,771	2,591	₦3.77bn	₦3.76bn	7%	15.4 yr
Enterprise	245	210	₦915m	₦915m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	244	237	₦275m	₦275m	69%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	43,185	849	₦144m	₦144m
2.0	8,237	634	₦906m	₦904m
3.0	5,941	986	₦3.36bn	₦3.35bn
1.0	5,070	489	₦305m	₦305m
4.0	1,827	80	₦241m	₦241m