Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Bunza, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Bunza has 66,934 buildings with a viable rooftop and 433 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

66,934

Usable roof area

1.96 km²

433 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.6bn/yr

8.96 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.1 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bunza

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦519bn

NPV₦79.5bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.1 yr

Unlocked energy9.54 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity54.4 MWp

Capex₦59bn

Year-one energy value₦63.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.99tn

NPV₦516bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bunza's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 54.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦59bn
Year 1 savings: ₦63.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦516bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bunza pays back quickly

Of the 65,647 buildings in Bunza with a modelled payback, 31.4% pay back inside five years and 8.0% inside three.

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How much of Bunza's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bunza consume 18 GWh/yr but want 27.5 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bunza

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bunza actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 65,647 buildings with a modelled result out of 66,934 in Bunza. 25,049 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,224 (8%)

Under 5 years20,617 (31%)

Under 7 years25,092 (38%)

Under 10 years32,133 (49%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%29,628 (44%)

Above 15%25,049 (37%)

Above 20%21,597 (32%)

Above 25%18,673 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

19 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.68 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.54 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

221k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bunza.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bunza

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	29,306	1,750	₦2.48bn	₦2.35bn	7%	14.4 yr
E	20,845	1,407	₦3.02bn	₦2.68bn	7%	14.6 yr
C	16,783	2,068	₦5.08bn	₦4.76bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	66,312	4,704	₦8.32bn	₦7.53bn	9%	13.1 yr
Worship	200	154	₦42.5m	₦42.5m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	195	166	₦992m	₦992m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	178	152	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	46	46	₦44m	₦44m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦1.93m	₦1.93m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	38,666	1,930	₦293m	₦293m	5%	16.1 yr
50 100m2	13,363	1,412	₦2.54bn	₦2.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	10,571	814	₦443m	₦360m	11%	9.1 yr
100 250m2	3,841	875	₦3.91bn	₦3.45bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	480	184	₦2.58bn	₦2.58bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	13	10	₦817m	₦817m	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	20,890	2,008	₦2.45bn	₦2.28bn	9%	13.4 yr
Unclassified	14,848	764	₦2.69bn	₦2.28bn	5%	16.1 yr
Urban Centre	12,168	1,502	₦3.48bn	₦3.48bn	21%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	11,608	521	₦652m	₦652m	9%	13.1 yr
Urban	7,420	430	₦1.31bn	₦1.1bn	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	40,053	1,834	₦239m	₦239m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	14,154	1,755	₦2.96bn	₦2.62bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	6,388	809	₦4.8bn	₦4.37bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,951	0	₦25.1m	₦25.1m	11%	7.9 yr
Residential Informal	2,762	306	₦286m	₦286m	29%	3.9 yr
Institutional	171	140	₦279m	₦279m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	79	67	₦180m	₦180m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	69	54	₦10.7m	₦10.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	62	47	₦5.23m	₦5.23m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	51	51	₦877m	₦877m	63%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	46	46	₦44m	₦44m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	42	36	₦322m	₦322m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	66,934	5,225	₦10.6bn	₦9.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	66,681	5,001	₦8.64bn	₦7.85bn	9%	13.1 yr
Enterprise	198	169	₦994m	₦994m	69%	1.4 yr
SME High	55	55	₦950m	₦950m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	40,092	1,864	₦241m	₦241m
2.0	11,405	1,244	₦2.29bn	₦2.21bn
3.0	6,883	1,479	₦6.17bn	₦5.76bn
1.0	5,807	523	₦833m	₦535m
4.0	2,744	112	₦907m	₦907m
5.0	3	3	₦134m	₦134m