Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Kalgo, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Kalgo has 45,625 buildings with a viable rooftop and 339 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

45,625

Usable roof area

1.53 km²

339 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.5bn/yr

14.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kalgo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦734bn

NPV₦115bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.4 yr

Unlocked energy9.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity47.5 MWp

Capex₦50.3bn

Year-one energy value₦50.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.4tn

NPV₦411bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kalgo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 47.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦50.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦50.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦411bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kalgo pays back quickly

Of the 44,577 buildings in Kalgo with a modelled payback, 36.3% pay back inside five years and 12.9% inside three.

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How much of Kalgo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kalgo consume 23.7 GWh/yr but want 33.2 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kalgo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kalgo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 44,577 buildings with a modelled result out of 45,625 in Kalgo. 19,523 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,738 (13%)

Under 5 years16,166 (36%)

Under 7 years19,550 (44%)

Under 10 years24,393 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%22,539 (49%)

Above 15%19,523 (43%)

Above 20%17,062 (37%)

Above 25%14,064 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

24.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.79 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

125k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kalgo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kalgo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	19,874	1,612	₦1.9bn	₦1.87bn	9%	9.9 yr
D	14,647	1,267	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	9%	13.1 yr
B	6,451	1,600	₦2.79bn	₦2.66bn	19%	4.1 yr
C	4,653	1,216	₦7.55bn	₦7.33bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	44,926	5,070	₦8.3bn	₦8.24bn	9%	9.4 yr
Commercial General	302	256	₦1.32bn	₦1.3bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	209	192	₦4.83bn	₦4.53bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	163	159	₦31.7m	₦31.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	21	15	₦2.07m	₦2.07m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	4	3	₦6.71m	₦6.71m	65%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	24,978	2,286	₦271m	₦271m	7%	15.1 yr
50 100m2	9,317	1,334	₦1.49bn	₦1.47bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	7,923	808	₦253m	₦253m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	2,853	948	₦2.82bn	₦2.82bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	505	278	₦4.48bn	₦4.31bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	49	41	₦5.17bn	₦4.98bn	75%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	15,532	1,928	₦2.13bn	₦2.11bn	9%	9.9 yr
Urban	11,548	1,268	₦6.11bn	₦5.92bn	11%	8.6 yr
Dense Urban	9,478	2,082	₦3.17bn	₦3.05bn	19%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	9,067	417	₦3.08bn	₦3.04bn	7%	15.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	24,538	2,308	₦236m	₦236m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	10,131	1,728	₦1.66bn	₦1.65bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	5,749	1,034	₦6.36bn	₦6.32bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,385	0	₦10.7m	₦10.7m	3%	13.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,123	0	₦25.8m	₦25.8m	19%	5.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	163	159	₦31.7m	₦31.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	131	127	₦499m	₦498m	59%	1.9 yr
Institutional	117	108	₦2.04bn	₦2.03bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	66	59	₦134m	₦134m	89%	1.1 yr
School	54	48	₦43.2m	₦43.2m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial	49	17	₦417m	₦393m	39%	2.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	40	38	₦566m	₦444m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	45,625	5,695	₦14.5bn	₦14.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	45,235	5,358	₦8.75bn	₦8.68bn	9%	9.4 yr
Enterprise	210	193	₦4.83bn	₦4.53bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	180	144	₦916m	₦891m	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	24,545	2,315	₦236m	₦236m
2.0	8,312	1,131	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn
3.0	5,370	1,497	₦10.8bn	₦10.5bn
1.0	4,966	478	₦433m	₦416m
4.0	2,373	249	₦963m	₦861m
5.0	36	12	₦172m	₦172m
6.0	23	13	₦393m	₦368m