Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Adamawa State: buildings, spend and payback

2,314,313 buildings in Adamawa State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦217bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 7% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,314,313

Usable roof area

70.2 km²

15.5 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦217bn/yr

182 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

14.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Adamawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦217bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦212bn

Lifetime cash saved₦11.7tn

NPV₦1.71tn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.4 yr

Unlocked energy260 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.38 GWp

Capex₦1.47tn

Year-one energy value₦1.42tn

Lifetime energy value₦66.9tn

NPV₦11.4tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Adamawa State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.38 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.47tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.42tn/yr
NPV: ₦11.4tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Adamawa State pays back quickly

Of the 2,211,000 buildings in Adamawa State with a modelled payback, 23.4% pay back inside five years and 7.5% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

23.4%

Payback under 3 years

7.5%

IRR above 20%

24.3%

Under 3 years · 7%3 – 5 years · 16%5 – 7 years · 9%7 – 10 years · 10%Over 10 years · 57%

Coverage: 96% of buildings in Adamawa State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Adamawa State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Adamawa State consume 439 GWh/yr but want 699 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 63%Suppressed · 37%

Energy wanted

699 GWh/yr

Energy consumed

439 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

260 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Adamawa State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 2,211,000 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,314,313 in Adamawa State. 712,431 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years165,785 (7%)

Under 5 years518,276 (23%)

Under 7 years714,560 (32%)

Under 10 years940,807 (43%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%879,046 (38%)

Above 15%712,431 (31%)

Above 20%562,037 (24%)

Above 25%449,355 (19%)

Electricity billing bands in Adamawa State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Adamawa State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	748,736	43,899	₦55.1bn	₦54bn	5%	16.4 yr
E	643,345	38,761	₦48.5bn	₦46.4bn	5%	16.4 yr
C	441,026	36,774	₦50.1bn	₦49.5bn	11%	8.4 yr
B	353,692	27,490	₦40.3bn	₦40bn	15%	6.4 yr
A	127,514	8,654	₦22.7bn	₦22.5bn	15%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,231,294	115,978	₦135bn	₦131bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial Retail	45,336	18,334	₦2.98bn	₦2.98bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	24,186	10,877	₦26.1bn	₦26bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	8,727	6,574	₦51.1bn	₦50.3bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	4,033	3,451	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	522	333	₦357m	₦357m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	140	18	₦326m	₦326m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	33	9	₦68m	₦67.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	27	4	₦17m	₦17m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	13	0	₦2.83m	₦2.83m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦123k	₦123k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,396,784	66,634	₦8.15bn	₦8.06bn	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	393,506	27,726	₦9.89bn	₦9.73bn	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	348,418	29,704	₦29bn	₦28.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	147,214	22,706	₦55.5bn	₦53.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	26,863	8,087	₦67.2bn	₦66.1bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	1,528	721	₦47.1bn	₦46.3bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	929,827	43,373	₦72.8bn	₦70.3bn	5%	17.4 yr
Urban Centre	451,702	33,846	₦56.6bn	₦56.1bn	15%	6.4 yr
Urban	357,800	30,624	₦49.4bn	₦48.4bn	9%	13.4 yr
Rural	304,933	25,694	₦18.6bn	₦18.2bn	7%	14.9 yr
Dense Urban	270,051	22,041	₦19.4bn	₦19.3bn	13%	6.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,348,411	48,830	₦5.7bn	₦5.7bn	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Small	337,349	31,195	₦31.5bn	₦31bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	227,591	8,534	₦5.5bn	₦5.5bn	11%	7.1 yr
Residential	199,671	27,074	₦91.5bn	₦88.5bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Formal	117,610	300	₦583m	₦580m	7%	8.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	45,333	18,333	₦2.97bn	₦2.97bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	11,707	3,973	₦13.9bn	₦13.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	6,011	4,736	₦39.4bn	₦39.1bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	5,260	1,837	₦5.35bn	₦5.25bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	2,923	2,247	₦3.13bn	₦3.13bn	79%	1.4 yr
School	2,214	1,551	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	75%	1.4 yr
Market	1,928	1,511	₦274m	₦274m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,301,489	153,755	₦211bn	₦207bn
Farmland	11,149	1,462	₦2.16bn	₦2.08bn
Commercial	622	25	₦338m	₦338m
Retail	508	108	₦121m	₦121m
Industrial	458	209	₦2.94bn	₦2.94bn
Farmyard	87	19	₦45.1m	₦45m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,288,150	142,923	₦146bn	₦143bn	7%	14.6 yr
SME High	17,097	5,828	₦19.4bn	₦19.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	9,066	6,827	₦51.3bn	₦50.6bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,344,494	49,989	₦5.73bn	₦5.73bn
2.0	331,219	31,818	₦33.6bn	₦32.5bn
3.0	261,612	35,728	₦140bn	₦137bn
1.0	198,500	32,457	₦13bn	₦12.7bn
4.0	170,217	4,685	₦14.7bn	₦14.7bn
5.0	7,557	743	₦5.46bn	₦5.43bn
6.0	714	158	₦4.47bn	₦4.38bn