Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Demsa, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Demsa has 93,122 buildings with a viable rooftop and 539 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.45bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

93,122

Usable roof area

2.44 km²

539 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.45bn/yr

6.38 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Demsa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.45bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.38bn

Lifetime cash saved₦412bn

NPV₦60.1bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.1 yr

Unlocked energy10.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity47.2 MWp

Capex₦49.4bn

Year-one energy value₦45.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.14tn

NPV₦362bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Demsa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 47.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦49.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦45.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦362bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Demsa pays back quickly

Of the 90,426 buildings in Demsa with a modelled payback, 20.1% pay back inside five years and 8.1% inside three.

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How much of Demsa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Demsa consume 15.9 GWh/yr but want 26.1 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Demsa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Demsa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 90,426 buildings with a modelled result out of 93,122 in Demsa. 26,591 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,284 (8%)

Under 5 years18,191 (20%)

Under 7 years26,659 (29%)

Under 10 years33,505 (37%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%31,996 (34%)

Above 15%26,591 (29%)

Above 20%19,932 (21%)

Above 25%15,835 (17%)

CO₂ avoided

15.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.94 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

119k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Demsa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Demsa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	35,514	1,850	₦1.98bn	₦1.97bn	5%	17.4 yr
E	22,152	1,261	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	5%	17.6 yr
B	19,506	1,308	₦2.2bn	₦2.14bn	17%	5.9 yr
C	15,950	2,655	₦2.16bn	₦2.16bn	9%	13.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	89,563	4,800	₦3.86bn	₦3.79bn	5%	16.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,334	597	₦68.7m	₦68.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,263	867	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	489	416	₦1.62bn	₦1.62bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	410	364	₦124m	₦124m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	47	28	₦32m	₦32m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	16	2	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	67,042	3,467	₦414m	₦404m	5%	17.6 yr
50 100m2	10,095	1,139	₦689m	₦689m	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	8,896	736	₦259m	₦200m	13%	8.1 yr
100 250m2	6,080	1,340	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	986	381	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	23	11	₦774m	₦774m	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	38,379	1,926	₦2.93bn	₦2.92bn	5%	18.1 yr
Rural	19,178	2,441	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	5%	15.9 yr
Urban	16,665	1,069	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	7%	15.6 yr
Urban Centre	15,780	1,289	₦1.77bn	₦1.7bn	17%	5.9 yr
Dense Urban	3,120	349	₦176m	₦176m	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	57,715	1,925	₦211m	₦211m	5%	17.6 yr
Residential	12,386	1,605	₦2.85bn	₦2.84bn	13%	6.4 yr
Residential Small	11,308	939	₦673m	₦614m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,490	285	₦82.4m	₦79m	13%	7.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,517	1	₦41.3m	₦41.3m	15%	6.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,334	597	₦68.7m	₦68.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	638	484	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	365	313	₦651m	₦651m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	238	61	₦318m	₦318m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	154	137	₦140m	₦140m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	144	128	₦37m	₦37m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	131	116	₦10.8m	₦10.8m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	92,968	7,073	₦7.44bn	₦7.37bn
Farmland	106	0	₦530k	₦530k
Industrial	47	1	₦4.21m	₦4.21m
Farmyard	1	0	₦14.7k	₦14.7k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	91,739	6,103	₦4.44bn	₦4.37bn	5%	16.1 yr
SME High	877	543	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	47%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	506	428	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	57,836	2,038	₦216m	₦216m
1.0	11,648	1,523	₦366m	₦359m
2.0	10,367	1,475	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn
3.0	7,879	1,519	₦3.98bn	₦3.92bn
4.0	5,065	336	₦336m	₦333m
5.0	247	129	₦461m	₦461m
6.0	80	54	₦651m	₦651m