Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Jada, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Jada has 186,198 buildings with a viable rooftop and 786 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.55bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

186,198

Usable roof area

3.59 km²

786 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.55bn/yr

6.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jada

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.55bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.32bn

Lifetime cash saved₦405bn

NPV₦54.2bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.4 yr

Unlocked energy9.16 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity76.8 MWp

Capex₦85bn

Year-one energy value₦90.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.3tn

NPV₦744bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Jada's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 76.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦85bn
Year 1 savings: ₦90.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦744bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jada pays back quickly

Of the 177,001 buildings in Jada with a modelled payback, 13.9% pay back inside five years and 3.0% inside three.

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How much of Jada's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jada consume 15.9 GWh/yr but want 25.1 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jada

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jada actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 177,001 buildings with a modelled result out of 186,198 in Jada. 30,056 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,258 (3%)

Under 5 years24,539 (14%)

Under 7 years30,112 (17%)

Under 10 years37,716 (21%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,907 (19%)

Above 15%30,056 (16%)

Above 20%26,000 (14%)

Above 25%21,525 (12%)

CO₂ avoided

15 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.88 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.16 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

397k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jada.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Jada

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	78,762	1,887	₦2.86bn	₦2.86bn	5%	17.6 yr
E	71,724	3,022	₦4.02bn	₦3.85bn	5%	17.6 yr
C	34,604	346	₦657m	₦597m	5%	16.6 yr
B	1,108	3	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	15%	6.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	183,154	2,282	₦4.4bn	₦4.18bn	5%	17.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,844	1,843	₦288m	₦288m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	705	682	₦1.9bn	₦1.9bn	53%	1.9 yr
Anchor	465	424	₦948m	₦948m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	25	22	₦6.09m	₦6.09m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	5	5	₦1.42m	₦1.42m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	134,707	2,397	₦427m	₦427m	3%	18.6 yr
30 50m2	27,690	973	₦491m	₦491m	9%	13.4 yr
50 100m2	19,033	1,036	₦1.35bn	₦1.34bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	4,117	585	₦2.32bn	₦2.17bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	630	257	₦2.66bn	₦2.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	21	10	₦290m	₦290m	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	102,224	1,350	₦2.71bn	₦2.49bn	3%	18.1 yr
Rural	35,145	941	₦852m	₦852m	5%	16.9 yr
Urban	28,118	876	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	5%	16.9 yr
Dense Urban	20,571	2,091	₦2.62bn	₦2.62bn	7%	8.9 yr
Urban Centre	140	0	₦1.01m	₦1.01m	9%	13.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	141,151	971	₦284m	₦284m	3%	18.1 yr
Residential Small	23,008	597	₦1.4bn	₦1.39bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	9,503	0	₦14.1m	₦14.1m	-1%	16.4 yr
Residential	9,490	714	₦2.71bn	₦2.5bn	15%	6.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,844	1,843	₦288m	₦288m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	374	374	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	224	205	₦535m	₦535m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	157	141	₦173m	₦173m	79%	1.4 yr
School	105	89	₦66.7m	₦66.7m	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial	100	100	₦385m	₦385m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	81	77	₦262m	₦262m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	68	65	₦167m	₦166m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	185,320	5,258	₦7.54bn	₦7.32bn
Farmland	862	0	₦2.05m	₦2.05m
Commercial	16	0	₦315k	₦315k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	185,256	4,357	₦5.07bn	₦4.85bn	5%	17.4 yr
SME High	474	474	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	468	427	₦949m	₦949m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	141,165	983	₦284m	₦284m
2.0	15,765	1,333	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn
1.0	12,211	1,444	₦678m	₦678m
3.0	9,297	1,153	₦3.95bn	₦3.73bn
4.0	7,589	174	₦841m	₦841m
5.0	161	161	₦476m	₦476m
6.0	10	10	₦122m	₦122m