Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Hong, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Hong has 142,034 buildings with a viable rooftop and 963 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.16bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

142,034

Usable roof area

4.36 km²

963 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.16bn/yr

4.97 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Hong

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.16bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.13bn

Lifetime cash saved₦342bn

NPV₦47.6bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.6 yr

Unlocked energy8.82 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity51.4 MWp

Capex₦54.9bn

Year-one energy value₦51.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.45tn

NPV₦416bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Hong's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 51.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦54.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦51.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦416bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Hong pays back quickly

Of the 137,084 buildings in Hong with a modelled payback, 19.9% pay back inside five years and 7.8% inside three.

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How much of Hong's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Hong consume 13.4 GWh/yr but want 22.2 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Hong

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Hong actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 137,084 buildings with a modelled result out of 142,034 in Hong. 44,196 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,717 (8%)

Under 5 years27,286 (20%)

Under 7 years44,416 (32%)

Under 10 years62,928 (46%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%58,264 (41%)

Above 15%44,196 (31%)

Above 20%30,713 (22%)

Above 25%22,534 (16%)

CO₂ avoided

13.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.45 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.82 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

139k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Hong.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Hong

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	45,742	3,208	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	43,335	2,795	₦2.06bn	₦2.02bn	13%	7.4 yr
E	40,579	2,079	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	7%	15.1 yr
B	12,378	251	₦620m	₦620m	11%	8.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	134,993	5,865	₦3.64bn	₦3.61bn	7%	14.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3,789	809	₦164m	₦164m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	2,499	1,040	₦1.09bn	₦1.08bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	637	524	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	91	75	₦35.8m	₦35.8m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	24	19	₦14.2m	₦14.2m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦363k	₦363k	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	78,528	3,150	₦381m	₦381m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	26,902	1,372	₦334m	₦334m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	26,207	1,875	₦863m	₦863m	19%	5.6 yr
100 250m2	9,206	1,491	₦1.88bn	₦1.85bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,141	416	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	50	29	₦828m	₦819m	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	62,883	2,793	₦2.57bn	₦2.54bn	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	39,884	1,724	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	7%	13.6 yr
Urban	27,692	2,975	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	17%	6.1 yr
Dense Urban	11,575	841	₦747m	₦738m	13%	7.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	77,954	2,339	₦303m	₦303m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	31,398	1,982	₦706m	₦706m	17%	5.9 yr
Residential	19,322	1,519	₦2.58bn	₦2.56bn	11%	7.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,789	809	₦164m	₦164m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,684	2	₦17.2m	₦17.2m	9%	8.9 yr
Residential Informal	2,600	23	₦28.2m	₦28.2m	9%	8.9 yr
Commercial	1,200	202	₦486m	₦477m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	507	135	₦224m	₦224m	37%	2.9 yr
Market	422	417	₦53.5m	₦53.5m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	367	301	₦710m	₦710m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	230	187	₦201m	₦201m	81%	1.4 yr
School	174	136	₦140m	₦140m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	141,985	8,332	₦6.16bn	₦6.13bn
Farmyard	48	1	₦347k	₦347k
Farmland	1	0	₦4.93k	₦4.93k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	139,668	7,454	₦4.21bn	₦4.19bn	7%	13.9 yr
SME High	1,708	338	₦710m	₦701m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	658	541	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	77,993	2,375	₦304m	₦304m
2.0	26,168	1,956	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn
1.0	15,529	1,697	₦346m	₦346m
3.0	15,315	2,255	₦3.64bn	₦3.61bn
4.0	5,939	47	₦569m	₦569m
5.0	1,047	3	₦254m	₦245m
6.0	43	0	₦37.9m	₦37.9m