Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Fufore, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Fufore has 221,236 buildings with a viable rooftop and 919 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

221,236

Usable roof area

4.2 km²

919 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.2bn/yr

10.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Fufore

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦652bn

NPV₦93.9bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.6 yr

Unlocked energy13.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity88.9 MWp

Capex₦98.8bn

Year-one energy value₦104bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.93tn

NPV₦850bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Fufore's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 88.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦98.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦104bn/yr
NPV: ₦850bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Fufore pays back quickly

Of the 216,003 buildings in Fufore with a modelled payback, 16.4% pay back inside five years and 6.4% inside three.

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How much of Fufore's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Fufore consume 21.6 GWh/yr but want 35 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Fufore

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Fufore actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 216,003 buildings with a modelled result out of 221,236 in Fufore. 48,179 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,723 (6%)

Under 5 years35,372 (16%)

Under 7 years48,260 (22%)

Under 10 years61,830 (29%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%57,206 (26%)

Above 15%48,179 (22%)

Above 20%38,441 (17%)

Above 25%31,089 (14%)

CO₂ avoided

24.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.76 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

377k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Fufore.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Fufore

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	89,280	4,335	₦4.48bn	₦4.43bn	5%	17.4 yr
E	82,627	4,293	₦3.6bn	₦3.53bn	5%	17.4 yr
C	47,555	4,612	₦3.43bn	₦3.42bn	11%	8.9 yr
B	1,774	337	₦730m	₦730m	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	218,611	11,664	₦9.63bn	₦9.52bn	5%	16.9 yr
Commercial Retail	875	366	₦70.6m	₦70.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	643	590	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	608	570	₦96.5m	₦96.5m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	462	362	₦733m	₦706m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	36	25	₦18m	₦18m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦329k	₦329k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	164,094	6,644	₦796m	₦774m	5%	18.1 yr
30 50m2	30,934	2,896	₦889m	₦889m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	20,504	2,499	₦2.43bn	₦2.41bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	4,832	1,145	₦3.06bn	₦3.01bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	832	374	₦3.88bn	₦3.86bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	40	19	₦1.19bn	₦1.16bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	151,959	7,238	₦7.01bn	₦6.9bn	5%	17.9 yr
Rural	37,498	4,847	₦3.05bn	₦3.02bn	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	21,568	520	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	13%	7.9 yr
Urban	10,211	972	₦970m	₦970m	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	168,497	5,924	₦641m	₦641m	5%	17.9 yr
Residential Small	25,913	2,981	₦2.85bn	₦2.83bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	18,437	2,748	₦6.05bn	₦5.96bn	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	3,553	0	₦65.8m	₦65.8m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,205	11	₦28.5m	₦28.5m	17%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	875	366	₦70.6m	₦70.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	508	464	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	216	201	₦32.3m	₦32.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	202	180	₦201m	₦201m	83%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	189	181	₦15.4m	₦15.4m	59%	1.9 yr
School	148	133	₦78.3m	₦78.3m	81%	1.4 yr
Hospital	116	111	₦303m	₦303m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	215,172	12,371	₦11.2bn	₦11.1bn
Farmland	5,844	1,145	₦955m	₦952m
Industrial	125	21	₦26.3m	₦26.3m
Retail	95	40	₦40.4m	₦40.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	220,436	12,896	₦10.1bn	₦9.98bn	5%	16.6 yr
Enterprise	667	613	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	133	68	₦445m	₦418m	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	168,628	6,056	₦647m	₦647m
2.0	25,831	3,344	₦2.6bn	₦2.57bn
1.0	13,291	1,991	₦724m	₦724m
3.0	10,875	2,148	₦7.76bn	₦7.68bn
4.0	2,556	28	₦234m	₦234m
5.0	53	10	₦269m	₦242m
6.0	2	0	₦8.34m	₦8.34m