Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Mayo-Belwa, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Mayo-Belwa has 154,634 buildings with a viable rooftop and 571 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.65bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

154,634

Usable roof area

2.62 km²

571 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.65bn/yr

5.39 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mayo-Belwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.65bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.55bn

Lifetime cash saved₦305bn

NPV₦40.3bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.9 yr

Unlocked energy6.32 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity50.8 MWp

Capex₦56.9bn

Year-one energy value₦58.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.77tn

NPV₦476bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Mayo-Belwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 50.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦56.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦58.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦476bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mayo-Belwa pays back quickly

Of the 149,538 buildings in Mayo-Belwa with a modelled payback, 9.5% pay back inside five years and 2.1% inside three.

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How much of Mayo-Belwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mayo-Belwa consume 11.5 GWh/yr but want 17.8 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mayo-Belwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mayo-Belwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 149,538 buildings with a modelled result out of 154,634 in Mayo-Belwa. 19,907 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,132 (2%)

Under 5 years14,156 (9%)

Under 7 years19,964 (13%)

Under 10 years26,460 (18%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%24,652 (16%)

Above 15%19,907 (13%)

Above 20%15,301 (10%)

Above 25%12,482 (8%)

CO₂ avoided

10.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.23 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.32 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

215k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mayo-Belwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mayo-Belwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	67,704	1,232	₦3.55bn	₦3.46bn	3%	18.4 yr
E	55,093	1,539	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	3%	18.4 yr
C	31,791	343	₦951m	₦951m	5%	15.1 yr
B	46	0	₦1.62m	₦1.62m	9%	8.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	152,851	1,549	₦2.93bn	₦2.83bn	5%	18.1 yr
Worship	509	490	₦96.7m	₦96.7m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	494	419	₦2.26bn	₦2.26bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	409	353	₦29.6m	₦29.6m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	339	273	₦321m	₦321m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	31	29	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦3.71m	₦3.71m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	126,802	1,680	₦325m	₦325m	3%	18.6 yr
30 50m2	13,070	347	₦231m	₦231m	9%	13.4 yr
50 100m2	10,656	436	₦660m	₦660m	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	3,446	393	₦1.01bn	₦915m	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	623	234	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	37	24	₦2.33bn	₦2.33bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	120,150	2,059	₦3.99bn	₦3.9bn	3%	18.4 yr
Dense Urban	13,571	51	₦200m	₦200m	11%	8.1 yr
Rural	11,117	278	₦854m	₦847m	5%	16.6 yr
Urban	9,796	726	₦605m	₦605m	9%	13.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	124,064	911	₦253m	₦253m	3%	18.6 yr
Residential Small	11,506	290	₦746m	₦746m	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	8,349	348	₦1.89bn	₦1.79bn	11%	8.1 yr
Residential Informal	5,624	0	₦30.5m	₦30.5m	9%	8.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,306	0	₦9.93m	₦9.93m	7%	9.6 yr
Institutional	421	379	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	409	353	₦29.6m	₦29.6m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	187	163	₦127m	₦127m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	170	164	₦36.9m	₦36.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	170	164	₦11.7m	₦11.7m	49%	2.1 yr
School	122	99	₦50.5m	₦50.5m	75%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	90	76	₦231m	₦231m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	154,455	3,112	₦5.64bn	₦5.54bn
Commercial	156	1	₦1.51m	₦1.51m
Retail	18	0	₦292k	₦292k
Farmland	2	0	₦7.52k	₦7.52k
Farmyard	2	0	₦286k	₦286k
Industrial	1	1	₦7.93m	₦7.93m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	154,070	2,643	₦3.28bn	₦3.19bn	5%	18.1 yr
Enterprise	504	428	₦2.26bn	₦2.26bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	60	43	₦105m	₦105m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	124,235	1,074	₦258m	₦258m
2.0	11,615	683	₦1.04bn	₦1.01bn
1.0	9,131	944	₦433m	₦433m
3.0	6,367	403	₦3.8bn	₦3.74bn
4.0	3,272	8	₦88.6m	₦88.6m
5.0	10	2	₦4.1m	₦4.1m
6.0	4	0	₦21.3m	₦21.3m