Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Yola North, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Yola North has 103,042 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.67 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦21.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

103,042

Usable roof area

7.46 km²

1.67 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦21.7bn/yr

13.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yola North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦21.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.25tn

NPV₦172bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy32.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity128 MWp

Capex₦127bn

Year-one energy value₦80.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.78tn

NPV₦602bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Yola North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 128 MWp
Capital cost: ₦127bn
Year 1 savings: ₦80.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦602bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yola North pays back quickly

Of the 90,735 buildings in Yola North with a modelled payback, 45.1% pay back inside five years and 9.5% inside three.

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How much of Yola North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yola North consume 61 GWh/yr but want 93.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yola North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yola North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 90,735 buildings with a modelled result out of 103,042 in Yola North. 57,026 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,607 (9%)

Under 5 years40,923 (45%)

Under 7 years57,185 (63%)

Under 10 years71,535 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%69,276 (67%)

Above 15%57,026 (55%)

Above 20%44,836 (44%)

Above 25%34,238 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

49.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.48 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

32.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

191k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yola North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yola North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	74,828	6,033	₦16.7bn	₦16.5bn	19%	5.1 yr
B	28,090	1,829	₦4.66bn	₦4.57bn	15%	6.4 yr
C	107	38	₦300m	₦300m	27%	4.1 yr
E	17	0	₦18.5k	₦18.5k	1%	24.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	95,516	6,942	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	15%	5.9 yr
Commercial General	3,423	511	₦6.26bn	₦6.18bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	3,243	334	₦191m	₦191m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	592	86	₦3.85bn	₦3.67bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	124	15	₦25.6m	₦25.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	90	7	₦156m	₦156m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	19	5	₦65.3m	₦65.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	14	0	₦29m	₦29m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	12	0	₦9.28m	₦9.28m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	8	0	₦1.38m	₦1.38m	35%	2.9 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦101k	₦101k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	33,812	2,304	₦352m	₦351m	7%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	23,709	1,365	₦899m	₦897m	15%	6.6 yr
100 250m2	20,521	1,891	₦4.32bn	₦4.31bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	17,762	1,143	₦338m	₦338m	13%	7.4 yr
250 1000m2	6,998	1,146	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	240	51	₦4.91bn	₦4.65bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	99,315	7,220	₦19.8bn	₦19.5bn	17%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	1,962	401	₦1.36bn	₦1.35bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	1,765	279	₦490m	₦490m	15%	6.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	67,463	2,556	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	13%	6.4 yr
Shed	12,771	1,527	₦198m	₦198m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Small	6,114	1,478	₦725m	₦723m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,310	2	₦42.6m	₦42.6m	13%	7.1 yr
Residential	3,628	1,379	₦7.83bn	₦7.79bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,242	334	₦189m	₦189m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,669	293	₦4.21bn	₦4.19bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,136	132	₦1.19bn	₦1.12bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	312	50	₦2.65bn	₦2.62bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	232	36	₦357m	₦357m	33%	3.4 yr
Apartment	206	0	₦3.2m	₦3.2m	25%	4.4 yr
Educational Facility	180	25	₦142m	₦142m	47%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	102,648	7,832	₦21.6bn	₦21.3bn
Retail	394	68	₦80.4m	₦80.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	99,559	7,378	₦12.3bn	₦12.2bn	17%	5.6 yr
SME High	2,884	436	₦5.54bn	₦5.45bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	599	86	₦3.86bn	₦3.69bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	37,936	1,409	₦5.7bn	₦5.7bn
3.0	28,690	3,137	₦11.5bn	₦11.3bn
2.0	18,838	1,294	₦503m	₦500m
0.0	12,422	1,525	₦196m	₦196m
1.0	3,402	376	₦65.2m	₦65.2m
5.0	1,549	118	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn
6.0	205	41	₦2.15bn	₦2.07bn