Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Song, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Song has 152,668 buildings with a viable rooftop and 683 MWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

152,668

Usable roof area

3.11 km²

683 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.9bn/yr

9.87 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Song

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦585bn

NPV₦86bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback15.9 yr

Unlocked energy12.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity76 MWp

Capex₦81.8bn

Year-one energy value₦85.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.02tn

NPV₦694bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Song's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 76 MWp
Capital cost: ₦81.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦85.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦694bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Song pays back quickly

Of the 149,985 buildings in Song with a modelled payback, 22.6% pay back inside five years and 10.2% inside three.

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How much of Song's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Song consume 20.7 GWh/yr but want 33.5 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Song

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Song actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 149,985 buildings with a modelled result out of 152,668 in Song. 40,758 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,340 (10%)

Under 5 years33,856 (23%)

Under 7 years40,805 (27%)

Under 10 years49,469 (33%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,862 (30%)

Above 15%40,758 (27%)

Above 20%35,852 (23%)

Above 25%30,437 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

21.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.68 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

270k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Song.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Song

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	64,566	5,983	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn	5%	16.4 yr
E	55,137	4,489	₦3.18bn	₦3.1bn	5%	16.6 yr
C	27,274	2,944	₦4.92bn	₦4.89bn	11%	8.1 yr
B	5,691	470	₦167m	₦167m	11%	6.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	145,226	9,478	₦6.53bn	₦6.42bn	5%	16.1 yr
Commercial Retail	4,884	2,621	₦437m	₦437m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,734	1,020	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	434	383	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	374	372	₦57.4m	₦57.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	16	12	₦10.2m	₦10.2m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	109,016	7,911	₦831m	₦831m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	22,867	2,592	₦884m	₦884m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	15,820	2,153	₦2.4bn	₦2.38bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,385	1,001	₦3.39bn	₦3.31bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	570	222	₦2.58bn	₦2.57bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	10	7	₦793m	₦793m	59%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	76,876	3,286	₦3.44bn	₦3.36bn	5%	17.9 yr
Urban	29,318	4,041	₦3.3bn	₦3.28bn	7%	13.9 yr
Rural	25,284	4,040	₦1.57bn	₦1.57bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	21,190	2,519	₦2.58bn	₦2.55bn	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	109,419	4,820	₦469m	₦469m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	16,580	1,778	₦2.33bn	₦2.31bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	11,792	2,494	₦3.57bn	₦3.47bn	19%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,884	2,621	₦437m	₦437m	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Informal	3,853	386	₦162m	₦160m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,582	0	₦8.63m	₦8.63m	5%	13.9 yr
Commercial	1,083	471	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	359	330	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	57%	1.9 yr
Market	276	274	₦52.8m	₦52.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	167	147	₦194m	₦194m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	129	128	₦14.7m	₦14.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	122	63	₦170m	₦170m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	152,641	13,860	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn
Industrial	27	26	₦4.4m	₦4.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	151,015	12,957	₦7.41bn	₦7.29bn	5%	15.9 yr
SME High	1,205	534	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	448	395	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	109,639	5,029	₦479m	₦479m
2.0	17,126	2,835	₦2.38bn	₦2.29bn
1.0	15,138	4,339	₦1.51bn	₦1.51bn
3.0	6,736	1,525	₦5.78bn	₦5.75bn
4.0	3,448	132	₦437m	₦437m
5.0	562	26	₦265m	₦265m
6.0	19	0	₦32.9m	₦32.9m