Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Ganye, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Ganye has 130,285 buildings with a viable rooftop and 737 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.82bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

130,285

Usable roof area

3.35 km²

737 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.82bn/yr

4.77 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ganye

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.82bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.69bn

Lifetime cash saved₦316bn

NPV₦42.8bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.4 yr

Unlocked energy7.32 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity60.2 MWp

Capex₦66.5bn

Year-one energy value₦70.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.37tn

NPV₦582bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ganye's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 60.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦66.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦582bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ganye pays back quickly

Of the 125,556 buildings in Ganye with a modelled payback, 18.7% pay back inside five years and 3.5% inside three.

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How much of Ganye's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ganye consume 12.2 GWh/yr but want 19.5 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ganye

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ganye actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 125,556 buildings with a modelled result out of 130,285 in Ganye. 34,090 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,453 (4%)

Under 5 years23,459 (19%)

Under 7 years34,197 (27%)

Under 10 years45,670 (36%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,373 (33%)

Above 15%34,090 (26%)

Above 20%26,020 (20%)

Above 25%19,250 (15%)

CO₂ avoided

12 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.33 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.32 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

322k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ganye.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ganye

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	58,066	2,513	₦2.34bn	₦2.3bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	51,541	1,344	₦1.81bn	₦1.8bn	5%	15.9 yr
C	20,678	591	₦1.67bn	₦1.6bn	9%	9.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	128,431	2,770	₦4.03bn	₦3.93bn	7%	15.4 yr
Commercial Retail	916	892	₦76.4m	₦76.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	411	361	₦1.29bn	₦1.25bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	351	286	₦354m	₦354m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	155	124	₦26.3m	₦26.3m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	20	15	₦46.1m	₦46.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦102k	₦102k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	78,659	2,106	₦282m	₦282m	5%	17.9 yr
30 50m2	25,992	861	₦423m	₦423m	9%	12.9 yr
50 100m2	19,227	701	₦1bn	₦970m	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	5,618	539	₦1.51bn	₦1.48bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	772	230	₦2.02bn	₦1.94bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	17	11	₦590m	₦590m	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	55,262	796	₦1.1bn	₦1.06bn	5%	17.4 yr
Urban Centre	33,933	1,042	₦2.31bn	₦2.29bn	13%	7.4 yr
Urban	21,248	927	₦1.41bn	₦1.36bn	7%	15.1 yr
Rural	19,842	1,683	₦1bn	₦985m	7%	14.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	81,631	1,318	₦220m	₦220m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	20,254	537	₦1.12bn	₦1.09bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	13,237	0	₦56m	₦56m	9%	8.4 yr
Residential	8,172	359	₦2.1bn	₦2.04bn	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Informal	5,122	556	₦528m	₦528m	23%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	916	892	₦76.4m	₦76.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Institutional	255	212	₦695m	₦695m	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	143	120	₦139m	₦139m	81%	1.4 yr
School	89	74	₦169m	₦169m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	71	66	₦260m	₦250m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	53	52	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	52	41	₦3.88m	₦3.88m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	130,230	4,448	₦5.82bn	₦5.69bn
Farmland	55	0	₦162k	₦162k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	129,756	3,976	₦4.41bn	₦4.31bn	7%	15.4 yr
Enterprise	431	376	₦1.34bn	₦1.3bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	98	96	₦75.2m	₦75.2m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	81,659	1,345	₦221m	₦221m
2.0	15,278	811	₦1.09bn	₦1.06bn
3.0	12,401	864	₦3.26bn	₦3.16bn
4.0	11,566	115	₦800m	₦800m
1.0	9,380	1,312	₦448m	₦448m
5.0	1	1	₦5.06m	₦5.06m