Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Mubi North, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Mubi North has 108,339 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.04 GWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

108,339

Usable roof area

4.66 km²

1.04 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19.1bn/yr

19.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mubi North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.01tn

NPV₦155bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy19.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity82 MWp

Capex₦86.6bn

Year-one energy value₦80.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.78tn

NPV₦642bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Mubi North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 82 MWp
Capital cost: ₦86.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦80.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦642bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mubi North pays back quickly

Of the 100,334 buildings in Mubi North with a modelled payback, 23.7% pay back inside five years and 7.5% inside three.

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How much of Mubi North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mubi North consume 35.4 GWh/yr but want 54.5 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mubi North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mubi North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 100,334 buildings with a modelled result out of 108,339 in Mubi North. 34,748 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,510 (7%)

Under 5 years23,739 (24%)

Under 7 years34,927 (35%)

Under 10 years52,651 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%47,444 (44%)

Above 15%34,748 (32%)

Above 20%26,111 (24%)

Above 25%19,890 (18%)

CO₂ avoided

35.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.13 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

203k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mubi North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mubi North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	41,523	3,346	₦7.54bn	₦7.41bn	11%	8.1 yr
D	28,515	1,785	₦4.24bn	₦4.24bn	7%	14.1 yr
E	21,571	900	₦2.61bn	₦2.54bn	7%	14.1 yr
C	13,945	1,523	₦4.6bn	₦4.6bn	13%	7.4 yr
A	2,785	2	₦69m	₦69m	7%	9.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	107,075	6,754	₦8.44bn	₦8.37bn	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial General	480	297	₦813m	₦813m	53%	2.1 yr
Anchor	475	319	₦9.75bn	₦9.62bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	244	145	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	32	18	₦26.3m	₦26.3m	47%	2.1 yr
Industrial	29	22	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦47.8k	₦47.8k	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦195k	₦195k	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦1.7m	₦1.7m	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	46,627	2,373	₦278m	₦278m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	25,826	1,374	₦388m	₦388m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	22,754	1,472	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	17%	6.4 yr
100 250m2	10,801	1,520	₦2.79bn	₦2.78bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,076	672	₦4.78bn	₦4.58bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	255	145	₦9.78bn	₦9.78bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	42,921	2,988	₦5.57bn	₦5.44bn	11%	8.1 yr
Urban	30,770	2,327	₦6.2bn	₦6.2bn	9%	9.9 yr
Unclassified	25,924	2,038	₦6.84bn	₦6.76bn	7%	13.9 yr
Rural	8,724	203	₦460m	₦460m	7%	15.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	48,876	2,187	₦265m	₦265m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Informal	27,785	566	₦280m	₦280m	9%	8.9 yr
Residential Small	18,120	2,219	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	10,565	1,782	₦6.61bn	₦6.54bn	19%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,623	0	₦12.5m	₦12.5m	11%	7.1 yr
Institutional	325	234	₦8.99bn	₦8.99bn	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	244	145	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	131	80	₦212m	₦212m	77%	1.4 yr
School	126	77	₦106m	₦106m	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	83	40	₦88.8m	₦88.8m	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial	82	65	₦94.8m	₦94.8m	65%	1.6 yr
Apartment	66	0	₦543k	₦543k	21%	5.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	107,948	7,554	₦19bn	₦18.8bn
Commercial	346	2	₦31.4m	₦31.4m
Farmland	43	0	₦111k	₦111k
Farmyard	2	0	₦11.3k	₦11.3k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	107,669	7,112	₦9.14bn	₦9.06bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	503	340	₦9.75bn	₦9.63bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	167	104	₦174m	₦174m	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	47,013	2,197	₦261m	₦261m
2.0	22,588	1,648	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn
3.0	20,951	2,796	₦16.9bn	₦16.7bn
1.0	9,702	696	₦257m	₦257m
4.0	8,079	217	₦606m	₦606m
5.0	6	2	₦46.7m	₦46.7m