Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Girei, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Girei has 94,021 buildings with a viable rooftop and 890 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

94,021

Usable roof area

4 km²

890 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.9bn/yr

14.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Girei

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦818bn

NPV₦125bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy15.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity70.4 MWp

Capex₦73.5bn

Year-one energy value₦67.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.17tn

NPV₦538bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Girei's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 70.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦73.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦67.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦538bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Girei pays back quickly

Of the 88,767 buildings in Girei with a modelled payback, 31.9% pay back inside five years and 13.1% inside three.

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How much of Girei's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Girei consume 28.6 GWh/yr but want 44.3 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Girei

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Girei actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 88,767 buildings with a modelled result out of 94,021 in Girei. 37,625 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,637 (13%)

Under 5 years28,355 (32%)

Under 7 years37,712 (42%)

Under 10 years48,518 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,773 (49%)

Above 15%37,625 (40%)

Above 20%30,508 (32%)

Above 25%24,716 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

29.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.85 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

187k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Girei.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Girei

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	32,888	3,620	₦4.77bn	₦4.77bn	15%	6.1 yr
C	21,352	3,347	₦4.11bn	₦4.09bn	17%	6.4 yr
E	20,249	2,309	₦3.29bn	₦2.76bn	7%	15.4 yr
D	19,531	2,276	₦3.69bn	₦3.56bn	7%	15.6 yr
A	1	0	₦6.53k	₦6.53k	19%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	90,503	10,793	₦9.55bn	₦9.02bn	9%	9.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,715	103	₦43.8m	₦43.8m	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	1,164	181	₦638m	₦638m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	394	291	₦5.51bn	₦5.35bn	59%	1.6 yr
Worship	223	174	₦58.9m	₦58.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	15	7	₦8.79m	₦8.79m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	5	3	₦43.4m	₦43.4m	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦285k	₦285k	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦67.3k	₦67.3k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,446	4,718	₦429m	₦428m	5%	16.1 yr
50 100m2	17,428	2,169	₦1.41bn	₦1.39bn	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	15,466	1,767	₦468m	₦451m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	10,458	2,024	₦3.24bn	₦3.07bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,047	778	₦4.47bn	₦4.15bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	176	96	₦5.84bn	₦5.68bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	31,094	3,582	₦5.38bn	₦4.88bn	5%	16.4 yr
Urban Centre	26,114	1,635	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	11%	7.9 yr
Dense Urban	17,127	2,708	₦2.05bn	₦2.04bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	15,851	1,983	₦6.56bn	₦6.38bn	13%	7.4 yr
Rural	3,835	1,644	₦842m	₦842m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	44,823	3,944	₦344m	₦344m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	16,302	2,769	₦1.7bn	₦1.66bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	15,079	1,287	₦402m	₦402m	11%	7.4 yr
Residential	9,881	2,793	₦7.09bn	₦6.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	4,387	0	₦11.5m	₦11.5m	5%	12.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,714	102	₦39.1m	₦39.1m	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial	671	2	₦206m	₦206m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	296	224	₦4.11bn	₦3.95bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	243	14	₦80m	₦80m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	144	109	₦216m	₦216m	83%	1.4 yr
School	111	77	₦60m	₦60m	75%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	77	58	₦13.8m	₦13.8m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	94,021	11,552	₦15.9bn	₦15.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	92,700	11,239	₦10bn	₦9.5bn	9%	9.1 yr
SME High	918	18	₦311m	₦311m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	403	295	₦5.52bn	₦5.36bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	44,841	3,981	₦344m	₦344m
2.0	18,258	2,470	₦1.92bn	₦1.79bn
3.0	17,220	3,348	₦12.2bn	₦11.7bn
4.0	7,056	421	₦657m	₦657m
1.0	6,141	1,327	₦454m	₦454m
5.0	468	5	₦150m	₦150m
6.0	37	0	₦85m	₦85m