Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Yola South, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Yola South has 199,327 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.98 GWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

199,327

Usable roof area

8.9 km²

1.98 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.8bn/yr

22 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.9 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yola South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.44tn

NPV₦211bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback7.9 yr

Unlocked energy33.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity148 MWp

Capex₦150bn

Year-one energy value₦121bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.71tn

NPV₦950bn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Yola South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 148 MWp
Capital cost: ₦150bn
Year 1 savings: ₦121bn/yr
NPV: ₦950bn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yola South pays back quickly

Of the 181,787 buildings in Yola South with a modelled payback, 31.8% pay back inside five years and 9.7% inside three.

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How much of Yola South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yola South consume 55.2 GWh/yr but want 88.3 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yola South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yola South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 181,787 buildings with a modelled result out of 199,327 in Yola South. 83,173 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,650 (10%)

Under 5 years57,782 (32%)

Under 7 years83,434 (46%)

Under 10 years111,318 (61%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%105,875 (53%)

Above 15%83,173 (42%)

Above 20%63,404 (32%)

Above 25%49,273 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

53.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

33.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

335k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yola South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yola South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	81,369	6,549	₦8.59bn	₦8.59bn	17%	5.6 yr
A	45,996	2,306	₦4.25bn	₦4.25bn	11%	7.4 yr
C	29,523	3,050	₦4.96bn	₦4.92bn	11%	8.4 yr
D	25,515	1,697	₦5.14bn	₦5.12bn	5%	16.4 yr
E	16,924	874	₦2.9bn	₦2.81bn	5%	17.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	184,362	12,598	₦13.6bn	₦13.5bn	9%	8.6 yr
Commercial Retail	9,885	823	₦338m	₦338m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	3,958	522	₦2.38bn	₦2.38bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	686	286	₦9.36bn	₦9.34bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	315	221	₦49.1m	₦49.1m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	86	25	₦46.5m	₦46.5m	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	18	1	₦63.1m	₦63.1m	35%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	6	0	₦5.03m	₦5.03m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	6	0	₦206k	₦206k	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	4	0	₦152k	₦152k	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦21.6k	₦21.6k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	92,332	4,863	₦635m	₦635m	5%	15.9 yr
50 100m2	43,623	3,134	₦1.89bn	₦1.86bn	17%	5.9 yr
30 50m2	34,259	2,202	₦603m	₦603m	11%	7.9 yr
100 250m2	24,857	3,133	₦5.58bn	₦5.54bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,918	990	₦6.62bn	₦6.56bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	338	154	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	110,062	7,024	₦9.83bn	₦9.83bn	13%	6.6 yr
Unclassified	32,244	2,762	₦7.64bn	₦7.59bn	5%	17.1 yr
Dense Urban	23,207	962	₦817m	₦816m	17%	5.1 yr
Urban	18,792	2,899	₦6.81bn	₦6.7bn	13%	7.1 yr
Rural	15,022	829	₦741m	₦741m	7%	15.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	69,703	3,766	₦439m	₦439m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Informal	51,330	1,783	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	11%	6.9 yr
Residential Small	27,129	4,077	₦2.03bn	₦2.01bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	22,348	0	₦88.4m	₦88.4m	7%	9.1 yr
Residential	13,814	2,972	₦9.94bn	₦9.83bn	27%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	9,885	823	₦338m	₦338m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	2,739	298	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	784	85	₦422m	₦422m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	448	246	₦8.21bn	₦8.19bn	43%	2.6 yr
School	214	56	₦208m	₦208m	47%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	203	84	₦179m	₦179m	47%	2.4 yr
Place Of Worship	114	73	₦7.32m	₦7.32m	45%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	198,984	14,299	₦22.9bn	₦22.7bn
Industrial	207	159	₦2.89bn	₦2.89bn
Farmland	93	4	₦49.8m	₦49.8m
Commercial	22	0	₦308k	₦308k
Farmyard	20	14	₦21.2m	₦21.2m
Retail	1	0	₦5.34k	₦5.34k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	195,077	13,802	₦14.6bn	₦14.4bn	11%	8.1 yr
SME High	3,543	382	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	707	292	₦9.37bn	₦9.35bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	68,802	3,818	₦439m	₦439m
2.0	42,135	3,128	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn
3.0	42,021	5,226	₦19.9bn	₦19.8bn
4.0	30,803	501	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn
1.0	13,257	1,793	₦509m	₦482m
5.0	2,140	10	₦717m	₦717m
6.0	169	0	₦496m	₦496m