Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Shelleng, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Shelleng has 61,247 buildings with a viable rooftop and 280 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

61,247

Usable roof area

1.28 km²

280 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.7bn/yr

8.39 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shelleng

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦537bn

NPV₦83.3bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy9.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity51.4 MWp

Capex₦55.8bn

Year-one energy value₦61.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.87tn

NPV₦501bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Shelleng's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 51.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦55.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦61.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦501bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shelleng pays back quickly

Of the 60,660 buildings in Shelleng with a modelled payback, 24.2% pay back inside five years and 7.9% inside three.

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How much of Shelleng's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shelleng consume 17.4 GWh/yr but want 26.5 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shelleng

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shelleng actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 60,660 buildings with a modelled result out of 61,247 in Shelleng. 19,798 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,779 (8%)

Under 5 years14,670 (24%)

Under 7 years19,845 (33%)

Under 10 years24,303 (40%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%22,819 (37%)

Above 15%19,798 (32%)

Above 20%15,867 (26%)

Above 25%13,087 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

19.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.22 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

257k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shelleng.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shelleng

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	24,145	658	₦1.34bn	₦1.31bn	5%	16.1 yr
E	19,883	1,157	₦3.58bn	₦3.23bn	7%	15.6 yr
C	15,196	1,671	₦4.2bn	₦4.11bn	17%	6.1 yr
B	2,023	1,286	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	53%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	60,833	4,389	₦9.82bn	₦9.35bn	7%	14.9 yr
Anchor	220	210	₦658m	₦658m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	161	146	₦208m	₦208m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	24	21	₦17.7m	₦17.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	6	5	₦5.05m	₦5.05m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	2	0	₦17k	₦17k	23%	4.4 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦2.74m	₦2.74m	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	43,680	2,134	₦298m	₦298m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	9,319	848	₦626m	₦621m	17%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	6,270	1,060	₦2.16bn	₦2.15bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,677	582	₦4.52bn	₦4.13bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	293	146	₦2.72bn	₦2.67bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	8	2	₦381m	₦380m	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	23,811	518	₦3.17bn	₦3bn	7%	15.4 yr
Dense Urban	13,531	546	₦914m	₦914m	9%	12.9 yr
Unclassified	12,220	702	₦2.02bn	₦1.73bn	3%	18.4 yr
Urban Centre	6,917	2,729	₦4.23bn	₦4.23bn	31%	3.6 yr
Rural	4,768	277	₦367m	₦366m	7%	15.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	42,765	2,382	₦224m	₦224m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	8,869	1,310	₦2.77bn	₦2.75bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	7,109	697	₦6.78bn	₦6.34bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,089	0	₦38m	₦38m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	134	125	₦265m	₦265m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	78	75	₦161m	₦161m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	55	53	₦308m	₦308m	55%	1.9 yr
School	43	40	₦72m	₦72m	83%	1.4 yr
Clinic	39	37	₦37.9m	₦37.9m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	24	21	₦17.7m	₦17.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Market	24	21	₦4.02m	₦4.02m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospital	4	4	₦19.7m	₦19.7m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	61,245	4,772	₦10.7bn	₦10.2bn
Farmland	2	0	₦2.93k	₦2.93k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	61,003	4,541	₦10bn	₦9.57bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	244	231	₦676m	₦676m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	42,775	2,391	₦225m	₦225m
1.0	7,625	582	₦1.02bn	₦1.01bn
2.0	6,579	1,079	₦2.9bn	₦2.69bn
3.0	2,578	720	₦6.52bn	₦6.28bn
4.0	1,690	0	₦39.5m	₦39.5m