Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Lamurde, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Lamurde has 57,293 buildings with a viable rooftop and 339 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.38bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

57,293

Usable roof area

1.53 km²

339 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.38bn/yr

3.12 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lamurde

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.38bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.27bn

Lifetime cash saved₦249bn

NPV₦34bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy6.98 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity33.9 MWp

Capex₦35.9bn

Year-one energy value₦31.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.5tn

NPV₦252bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Lamurde's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 33.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦35.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦31.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦252bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lamurde pays back quickly

Of the 53,886 buildings in Lamurde with a modelled payback, 25.5% pay back inside five years and 7.1% inside three.

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How much of Lamurde's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lamurde consume 11 GWh/yr but want 18 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Lamurde

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Lamurde actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 53,886 buildings with a modelled result out of 57,293 in Lamurde. 20,295 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,810 (7%)

Under 5 years13,732 (25%)

Under 7 years20,357 (38%)

Under 10 years27,385 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,934 (45%)

Above 15%20,295 (35%)

Above 20%15,030 (26%)

Above 25%11,932 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

9.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.46 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.98 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

107k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lamurde.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Lamurde

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	20,266	895	₦827m	₦773m	15%	6.4 yr
D	14,804	896	₦590m	₦590m	5%	16.4 yr
E	12,597	986	₦862m	₦812m	7%	15.6 yr
C	6,541	407	₦415m	₦415m	13%	7.9 yr
A	3,085	313	₦1.69bn	₦1.68bn	15%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	54,119	2,518	₦2.48bn	₦2.37bn	7%	13.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,772	436	₦72m	₦72m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	917	202	₦327m	₦327m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	300	235	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	160	96	₦34.2m	₦34.2m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	24	9	₦11.6m	₦11.6m	39%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦140k	₦140k	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	37,665	1,919	₦295m	₦259m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	8,469	453	₦179m	₦154m	13%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	7,712	465	₦517m	₦473m	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	2,897	433	₦888m	₦885m	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	523	215	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	27	12	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	18,223	1,019	₦690m	₦690m	15%	6.4 yr
Unclassified	17,486	1,040	₦1.38bn	₦1.32bn	5%	16.6 yr
Urban	11,880	588	₦1.73bn	₦1.68bn	9%	8.9 yr
Rural	9,704	850	₦584m	₦584m	7%	14.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	28,305	999	₦118m	₦118m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential	10,130	956	₦1.77bn	₦1.74bn	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Small	8,673	563	₦546m	₦474m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	7,009	0	₦45.6m	₦45.6m	9%	7.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,772	436	₦72m	₦72m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	325	89	₦104m	₦104m	37%	2.9 yr
Market	307	2	₦6.6m	₦6.6m	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	202	142	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	135	6	₦47.3m	₦47.3m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	102	85	₦104m	₦104m	81%	1.4 yr
School	58	44	₦23.7m	₦23.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	53	32	₦8.47m	₦8.47m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	57,070	3,481	₦4.32bn	₦4.22bn
Farmland	223	16	₦53.6m	₦53.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	56,523	3,164	₦2.77bn	₦2.66bn	9%	9.9 yr
SME High	457	93	₦151m	₦151m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	313	240	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	28,351	1,022	₦119m	₦119m
2.0	8,670	647	₦785m	₦754m
1.0	8,328	1,263	₦397m	₦320m
3.0	6,519	555	₦2.95bn	₦2.95bn
4.0	5,346	9	₦78.8m	₦78.8m
5.0	76	1	₦45.2m	₦45.2m
6.0	3	0	₦5.4m	₦5.4m