Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Toungo, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Toungo has 48,742 buildings with a viable rooftop and 187 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦1.13bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

48,742

Usable roof area

855,469 m²

187 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦1.13bn/yr

936 MWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Toungo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.13bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.13bn

Lifetime cash saved₦64bn

NPV₦7.69bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.6 yr

Unlocked energy1.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity16.7 MWp

Capex₦18.3bn

Year-one energy value₦18.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦889bn

NPV₦153bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Toungo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 16.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦18.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦18.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦153bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Toungo pays back quickly

Of the 44,408 buildings in Toungo with a modelled payback, 12.2% pay back inside five years and 4.7% inside three.

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How much of Toungo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Toungo consume 2.68 GWh/yr but want 4.58 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Toungo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Toungo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 44,408 buildings with a modelled result out of 48,742 in Toungo. 7,404 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,089 (5%)

Under 5 years5,423 (12%)

Under 7 years7,429 (17%)

Under 10 years9,948 (22%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%9,189 (19%)

Above 15%7,404 (15%)

Above 20%5,893 (12%)

Above 25%4,500 (9%)

CO₂ avoided

2.55 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

399594 litres/yr

Energy unlocked

1.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

75.2k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Toungo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Toungo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	25,402	1,152	₦565m	₦565m	5%	17.6 yr
E	17,683	890	₦502m	₦500m	5%	17.4 yr
C	5,657	45	₦61m	₦61m	5%	17.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	46,900	296	₦625m	₦622m	5%	17.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,144	1,136	₦87.4m	₦87.4m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	369	352	₦227m	₦227m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	194	174	₦169m	₦169m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	113	109	₦12.9m	₦12.9m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	22	20	₦6.35m	₦6.35m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	36,757	1,068	₦130m	₦130m	3%	18.6 yr
30 50m2	7,425	469	₦111m	₦111m	7%	13.6 yr
50 100m2	3,475	327	₦219m	₦219m	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	909	153	₦229m	₦229m	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	172	67	₦418m	₦415m	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	4	3	₦21.7m	₦21.7m	51%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	31,824	572	₦571m	₦568m	3%	18.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,411	1,281	₦403m	₦403m	5%	14.1 yr
Rural	5,470	207	₦127m	₦127m	5%	15.9 yr
Urban	2,037	27	₦27.6m	₦27.6m	5%	16.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	33,560	69	₦53.3m	₦53.3m	3%	18.6 yr
Residential	6,113	171	₦391m	₦389m	11%	8.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,647	0	₦5.08m	₦5.08m	-1%	17.1 yr
Residential Small	3,579	56	₦175m	₦175m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,144	1,136	₦87.4m	₦87.4m	61%	1.6 yr
Institutional	164	149	₦82m	₦82m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial	128	128	₦120m	₦120m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	95	95	₦47.1m	₦47.1m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	63	56	₦30.6m	₦30.6m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	42	₦79.5m	₦79.5m	49%	2.1 yr
Clinic	42	39	₦19.1m	₦19.1m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	39	37	₦3.47m	₦3.47m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	48,708	2,087	₦1.13bn	₦1.12bn
Farmland	34	0	₦630k	₦630k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	48,303	1,670	₦785m	₦783m	5%	17.6 yr
SME High	223	223	₦167m	₦167m	63%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	216	194	₦176m	₦176m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	33,591	97	₦54.3m	₦54.3m
1.0	5,260	1,373	₦185m	₦185m
2.0	4,277	264	₦214m	₦214m
4.0	3,133	31	₦74.5m	₦74.5m
3.0	2,480	321	₦591m	₦588m
5.0	1	1	₦8.73m	₦8.73m