Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Numan, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Numan has 43,665 buildings with a viable rooftop and 307 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.25bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

43,665

Usable roof area

1.38 km²

307 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.25bn/yr

2.62 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.9 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Numan

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.25bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.13bn

Lifetime cash saved₦246bn

NPV₦34.3bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.9 yr

Unlocked energy7.74 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity37.1 MWp

Capex₦36.6bn

Year-one energy value₦30.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.44tn

NPV₦241bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Numan's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 37.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦36.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦30.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦241bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Numan pays back quickly

Of the 42,596 buildings in Numan with a modelled payback, 34.2% pay back inside five years and 8.1% inside three.

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How much of Numan's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Numan consume 11.4 GWh/yr but want 19.2 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Numan

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Numan actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 42,596 buildings with a modelled result out of 43,665 in Numan. 19,333 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,444 (8%)

Under 5 years14,564 (34%)

Under 7 years19,382 (46%)

Under 10 years24,871 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%24,054 (55%)

Above 15%19,333 (44%)

Above 20%15,535 (36%)

Above 25%12,598 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

10.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.31 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.74 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

81.9k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Numan.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Numan

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	15,671	720	₦1.75bn	₦1.75bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	11,174	496	₦374m	₦374m	5%	16.4 yr
C	9,555	370	₦870m	₦870m	17%	6.4 yr
E	7,265	505	₦1.26bn	₦1.14bn	5%	16.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	36,941	1,396	₦2.25bn	₦2.13bn	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial Retail	4,523	139	₦118m	₦118m	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	1,800	283	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	284	208	₦609m	₦609m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	91	57	₦15.6m	₦15.6m	43%	2.6 yr
Industrial	20	6	₦2.7m	₦2.7m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	3	2	₦1.09m	₦1.09m	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	2	0	₦152k	₦152k	29%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦1.3m	₦1.3m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	27,282	900	₦200m	₦197m	5%	15.9 yr
50 100m2	6,196	336	₦416m	₦416m	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	5,945	216	₦131m	₦131m	17%	5.9 yr
100 250m2	3,660	419	₦1.45bn	₦1.39bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	570	213	₦1.66bn	₦1.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	12	7	₦398m	₦398m	37%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	15,421	781	₦1.4bn	₦1.27bn	5%	17.1 yr
Urban Centre	13,269	990	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn	21%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	6,694	29	₦256m	₦256m	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	4,597	230	₦306m	₦306m	7%	15.9 yr
Urban	3,684	61	₦163m	₦163m	21%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	19,568	475	₦68.2m	₦68.2m	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Small	7,842	378	₦323m	₦323m	23%	4.4 yr
Residential	6,830	423	₦1.79bn	₦1.67bn	17%	6.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,523	139	₦118m	₦118m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	2,699	120	₦67.2m	₦67.2m	13%	6.6 yr
Commercial	1,011	121	₦877m	₦877m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	599	42	₦191m	₦191m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	178	127	₦397m	₦397m	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	102	83	₦134m	₦134m	73%	1.4 yr
School	72	56	₦38.8m	₦38.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	53	32	₦113m	₦113m	37%	2.9 yr
Clinic	48	30	₦28.8m	₦28.8m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	43,630	2,089	₦4.24bn	₦4.12bn
Farmland	33	1	₦640k	₦640k
Farmyard	2	1	₦10.4m	₦10.3m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	41,757	1,713	₦2.57bn	₦2.44bn	11%	8.4 yr
SME High	1,616	167	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	292	211	₦610m	₦610m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	19,583	488	₦68.9m	₦68.9m
3.0	9,799	675	₦2.22bn	₦2.16bn
2.0	5,865	391	₦522m	₦465m
1.0	4,419	143	₦84.3m	₦81.5m
4.0	2,957	248	₦361m	₦361m
5.0	934	108	₦454m	₦454m
6.0	108	38	₦539m	₦539m