Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Mubi South, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Mubi South has 91,435 buildings with a viable rooftop and 887 MWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

91,435

Usable roof area

3.99 km²

887 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.3bn/yr

9.81 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mubi South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦635bn

NPV₦97.7bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.1 yr

Unlocked energy14.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity66.6 MWp

Capex₦71.3bn

Year-one energy value₦73.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.43tn

NPV₦593bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Mubi South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 66.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦71.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦73.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦593bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mubi South pays back quickly

Of the 84,542 buildings in Mubi South with a modelled payback, 27.4% pay back inside five years and 8.8% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Mubi South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mubi South consume 22.8 GWh/yr but want 37.3 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Mubi South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mubi South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 84,542 buildings with a modelled result out of 91,435 in Mubi South. 35,397 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,470 (9%)

Under 5 years23,147 (27%)

Under 7 years35,609 (42%)

Under 10 years54,243 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%50,063 (55%)

Above 15%35,397 (39%)

Above 20%25,554 (28%)

Above 25%19,624 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

24.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.41 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

282k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mubi South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mubi South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	51,206	3,635	₦3.01bn	₦3bn	13%	7.6 yr
D	14,770	1,537	₦4.18bn	₦3.9bn	9%	13.1 yr
C	13,959	1,452	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	15%	7.1 yr
E	10,681	1,286	₦2.91bn	₦2.73bn	9%	13.4 yr
A	819	0	₦19.5m	₦19.5m	5%	14.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	90,200	7,005	₦9.21bn	₦8.75bn	11%	8.1 yr
Commercial General	483	346	₦705m	₦705m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	361	348	₦54.4m	₦54.4m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	317	168	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	52	32	₦8.63m	₦8.63m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	13	7	₦5.66m	₦5.66m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	4	1	₦8.38m	₦8.38m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	3	2	₦1.99m	₦1.99m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	2	1	₦402k	₦402k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	35,531	2,616	₦246m	₦235m	7%	14.6 yr
50 100m2	23,300	1,793	₦2.4bn	₦2.38bn	17%	6.4 yr
30 50m2	20,543	1,556	₦589m	₦582m	9%	9.4 yr
100 250m2	10,553	1,434	₦3.26bn	₦2.88bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,381	443	₦3.57bn	₦3.51bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	127	68	₦2.21bn	₦2.21bn	39%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	54,127	3,672	₦2.77bn	₦2.76bn	13%	7.6 yr
Unclassified	19,983	2,860	₦7.95bn	₦7.52bn	9%	13.1 yr
Urban	9,954	791	₦868m	₦868m	15%	6.9 yr
Rural	7,367	587	₦691m	₦651m	9%	13.1 yr
Dense Urban	4	0	₦1.53m	₦1.53m	7%	14.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	33,188	2,555	₦247m	₦247m	9%	13.4 yr
Residential Informal	28,446	1,254	₦398m	₦398m	11%	7.6 yr
Residential Small	14,671	1,870	₦2.66bn	₦2.64bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	7,536	0	₦27.4m	₦27.4m	7%	9.1 yr
Residential	6,343	1,326	₦5.88bn	₦5.43bn	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	361	348	₦54.4m	₦54.4m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	226	205	₦418m	₦418m	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	223	135	₦2.12bn	₦2.11bn	47%	2.4 yr
School	96	48	₦73.5m	₦73.5m	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	91	45	₦82.3m	₦82.3m	51%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	49	28	₦153m	₦153m	47%	2.1 yr
Clinic	48	26	₦41.8m	₦41.8m	37%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	91,135	7,850	₦12.1bn	₦11.6bn
Farmland	235	56	₦194m	₦194m
Commercial	61	1	₦1.69m	₦1.69m
Farmyard	4	3	₦12.6m	₦12.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	90,854	7,519	₦9.54bn	₦9.07bn	11%	8.1 yr
Enterprise	330	175	₦2.29bn	₦2.28bn	49%	2.1 yr
SME High	251	216	₦453m	₦453m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	31,213	2,555	₦240m	₦240m
3.0	19,620	2,144	₦7.3bn	₦7.17bn
2.0	18,900	1,534	₦2.68bn	₦2.36bn
4.0	13,098	586	₦804m	₦804m
1.0	8,591	1,086	₦1.19bn	₦1.16bn
5.0	12	5	₦53.8m	₦53.8m
6.0	1	0	₦12.6m	₦12.6m