Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Maiha, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Maiha has 69,841 buildings with a viable rooftop and 385 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.46bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

69,841

Usable roof area

1.76 km²

385 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.46bn/yr

7.26 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Maiha

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.46bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦398bn

NPV₦62bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy7.33 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity49.4 MWp

Capex₦53.9bn

Year-one energy value₦61.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.89tn

NPV₦505bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Maiha's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 49.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦53.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦61.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦505bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Maiha pays back quickly

Of the 69,128 buildings in Maiha with a modelled payback, 22.2% pay back inside five years and 5.9% inside three.

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How much of Maiha's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Maiha consume 13.6 GWh/yr but want 20.9 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Maiha

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Maiha actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 69,128 buildings with a modelled result out of 69,841 in Maiha. 20,344 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,095 (6%)

Under 5 years15,352 (22%)

Under 7 years20,394 (30%)

Under 10 years28,536 (41%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,178 (36%)

Above 15%20,344 (29%)

Above 20%16,426 (24%)

Above 25%13,966 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

14.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.88 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.33 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

236k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Maiha.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Maiha

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	28,624	1,647	₦3.25bn	₦3.02bn	7%	14.6 yr
D	24,228	1,619	₦2.94bn	₦2.64bn	7%	14.6 yr
C	16,989	817	₦2.27bn	₦2.04bn	13%	8.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	69,032	3,324	₦6.92bn	₦6.39bn	7%	14.1 yr
Anchor	287	270	₦1.13bn	₦911m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	270	260	₦358m	₦358m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	139	136	₦14.6m	₦14.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	97	78	₦17.5m	₦17.5m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	16	15	₦15.3m	₦15.3m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	40,124	1,712	₦272m	₦264m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	17,245	1,056	₦616m	₦609m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	9,702	751	₦1.74bn	₦1.72bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,397	407	₦2.54bn	₦2.11bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	368	155	₦2.59bn	₦2.53bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	5	2	₦689m	₦473m	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	36,640	1,984	₦3.88bn	₦3.58bn	7%	14.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,465	661	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	11%	8.9 yr
Urban	11,767	963	₦2.44bn	₦2.23bn	9%	13.4 yr
Rural	8,969	475	₦1.06bn	₦819m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	46,551	1,950	₦218m	₦218m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	14,044	840	₦2.15bn	₦2.12bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	5,602	534	₦4.54bn	₦4.04bn	17%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,828	0	₦16.5m	₦16.5m	11%	8.4 yr
Institutional	191	175	₦280m	₦280m	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	139	136	₦14.6m	₦14.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	88	85	₦96.2m	₦96.2m	91%	1.1 yr
School	69	66	₦47.3m	₦47.3m	89%	1.1 yr
Market	60	59	₦7.52m	₦7.52m	63%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	49	45	₦828m	₦611m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	44	40	₦79.6m	₦79.6m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospital	36	34	₦76.5m	₦76.5m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	66,365	3,848	₦7.54bn	₦6.87bn
Farmland	3,475	234	₦903m	₦821m
Industrial	1	1	₦9.67m	₦9.67m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	69,492	3,752	₦7.25bn	₦6.71bn	7%	14.1 yr
Enterprise	303	285	₦1.14bn	₦926m	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	46	46	₦62.8m	₦62.8m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	46,562	1,961	₦218m	₦218m
2.0	10,287	900	₦2.45bn	₦2.32bn
1.0	6,352	603	₦833m	₦797m
3.0	4,365	607	₦4.89bn	₦4.3bn
4.0	2,274	11	₦49.5m	₦49.5m
5.0	1	1	₦18m	₦18m