Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Madagali, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Madagali has 72,417 buildings with a viable rooftop and 482 MWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

72,417

Usable roof area

2.18 km²

482 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.2bn/yr

11.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Madagali

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦650bn

NPV₦102bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy13.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity71.4 MWp

Capex₦74.7bn

Year-one energy value₦80.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.81tn

NPV₦660bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Madagali's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 71.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦74.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦80.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦660bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Madagali pays back quickly

Of the 71,470 buildings in Madagali with a modelled payback, 36.9% pay back inside five years and 17.9% inside three.

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How much of Madagali's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Madagali consume 20.9 GWh/yr but want 34.1 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Madagali

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Madagali actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 71,470 buildings with a modelled result out of 72,417 in Madagali. 30,779 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,814 (18%)

Under 5 years26,386 (37%)

Under 7 years30,841 (43%)

Under 10 years39,885 (56%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%36,605 (51%)

Above 15%30,779 (43%)

Above 20%27,389 (38%)

Above 25%24,699 (34%)

CO₂ avoided

23.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

254k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Madagali.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Madagali

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	23,894	4,935	₦5.13bn	₦5.04bn	9%	12.9 yr
E	23,162	4,358	₦4.6bn	₦4.6bn	9%	12.9 yr
C	20,634	3,163	₦2.27bn	₦2.24bn	11%	7.9 yr
B	4,727	31	₦235m	₦235m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	64,122	4,833	₦7.84bn	₦7.72bn	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial Retail	5,976	5,515	₦617m	₦617m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	1,822	1,672	₦2bn	₦2bn	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	266	243	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	209	206	₦152m	₦152m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	22	18	₦31.2m	₦31.2m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	37,217	5,655	₦530m	₦529m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	18,580	3,012	₦874m	₦857m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	12,340	2,452	₦2.31bn	₦2.22bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,611	1,068	₦3.49bn	₦3.49bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	627	275	₦3.52bn	₦3.51bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	42	25	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	59%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	27,466	4,096	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn	15%	6.6 yr
Unclassified	17,530	2,339	₦4.37bn	₦4.27bn	7%	14.4 yr
Urban	17,516	4,473	₦4.45bn	₦4.43bn	11%	9.1 yr
Rural	9,905	1,579	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	9%	13.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	40,537	2,562	₦247m	₦247m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	14,232	1,190	₦2.11bn	₦2.01bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	5,976	5,515	₦617m	₦617m	61%	1.6 yr
Residential	5,346	1,081	₦5.47bn	₦5.45bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,659	0	₦9.58m	₦9.58m	7%	9.4 yr
Commercial	1,349	1,223	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn	65%	1.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,348	0	₦9.98m	₦9.98m	13%	7.1 yr
Institutional	235	219	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	183	180	₦151m	₦151m	65%	1.6 yr
Market	146	142	₦33.6m	₦33.6m	71%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	86	79	₦149m	₦149m	93%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	65	63	₦24.6m	₦24.6m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	72,213	12,461	₦11.9bn	₦11.8bn
Farmland	133	5	₦471k	₦471k
Industrial	50	0	₦483k	₦483k
Commercial	21	21	₦303m	₦303m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	70,602	10,828	₦8.95bn	₦8.84bn	9%	9.4 yr
SME High	1,532	1,403	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	65%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	283	256	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	40,744	2,750	₦256m	₦256m
1.0	11,525	6,283	₦1.57bn	₦1.49bn
2.0	10,269	1,518	₦2.59bn	₦2.56bn
3.0	7,798	1,849	₦7.25bn	₦7.24bn
4.0	2,073	79	₦528m	₦528m
5.0	8	8	₦39.8m	₦39.8m