Adamawa State

Rooftop solar in Guyuk, Adamawa: what the roofs are worth

Guyuk has 65,587 buildings with a viable rooftop and 341 MWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.43bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

65,587

Usable roof area

1.56 km²

341 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.43bn/yr

7.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Guyuk

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.43bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦439bn

NPV₦67bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.6 yr

Unlocked energy8.68 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity49 MWp

Capex₦52.7bn

Year-one energy value₦55.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.61tn

NPV₦450bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Guyuk's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 49 MWp
Capital cost: ₦52.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦55.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦450bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Guyuk pays back quickly

Of the 64,831 buildings in Guyuk with a modelled payback, 26.2% pay back inside five years and 9.5% inside three.

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How much of Guyuk's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Guyuk consume 15.2 GWh/yr but want 23.9 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Guyuk

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Guyuk actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 64,831 buildings with a modelled result out of 65,587 in Guyuk. 21,888 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,184 (10%)

Under 5 years16,965 (26%)

Under 7 years21,934 (34%)

Under 10 years26,725 (41%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,162 (38%)

Above 15%21,888 (33%)

Above 20%17,976 (27%)

Above 25%15,391 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

16.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.85 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.68 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

205k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Guyuk.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Guyuk

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	24,497	881	₦1.31bn	₦1.26bn	5%	15.9 yr
E	20,896	1,994	₦2.18bn	₦2.13bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	13,060	2,266	₦3.94bn	₦3.91bn	15%	6.6 yr
B	7,134	1,009	₦996m	₦996m	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	63,125	4,115	₦6.06bn	₦5.96bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,307	1,033	₦132m	₦132m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	725	623	₦519m	₦519m	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	382	338	₦1.7bn	₦1.67bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	28	28	₦8.24m	₦8.24m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	20	13	₦9.36m	₦9.36m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	43,650	2,884	₦343m	₦343m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	11,503	1,095	₦518m	₦504m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	7,771	1,192	₦1.52bn	₦1.48bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,246	779	₦2.5bn	₦2.49bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	401	193	₦2.34bn	₦2.3bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	16	7	₦1.21bn	₦1.18bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	20,915	548	₦1.31bn	₦1.26bn	7%	15.6 yr
Dense Urban	13,483	1,770	₦1.34bn	₦1.32bn	9%	13.4 yr
Urban Centre	11,624	2,811	₦4.36bn	₦4.33bn	21%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	10,862	742	₦1.14bn	₦1.12bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	8,703	279	₦279m	₦279m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	43,813	1,994	₦220m	₦220m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	11,452	1,471	₦1.92bn	₦1.87bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	6,686	650	₦3.91bn	₦3.86bn	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,307	1,033	₦132m	₦132m	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,174	0	₦8.79m	₦8.79m	9%	9.1 yr
Market	287	257	₦42.7m	₦42.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Institutional	210	186	₦855m	₦850m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	202	157	₦216m	₦216m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	148	134	₦141m	₦141m	81%	1.4 yr
School	96	86	₦73m	₦73m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	64	55	₦768m	₦741m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	49	41	₦26.1m	₦26.1m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	65,582	6,150	₦8.43bn	₦8.3bn
Farmland	5	0	₦685k	₦685k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	64,948	5,604	₦6.45bn	₦6.35bn	7%	14.6 yr
Enterprise	399	351	₦1.71bn	₦1.68bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	240	195	₦268m	₦268m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	43,839	2,012	₦221m	₦221m
2.0	9,492	1,218	₦1.71bn	₦1.7bn
1.0	7,485	1,617	₦696m	₦668m
3.0	4,590	1,285	₦5.68bn	₦5.6bn
4.0	180	17	₦102m	₦102m
5.0	1	1	₦12.3m	₦12.3m