Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Ogun State: buildings, spend and payback

3,256,848 buildings in Ogun State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦1.37tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 34% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

3,256,848

Usable roof area

294 km²

66 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦1.37tn/yr

1.07 TWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.37tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.34tn

Lifetime cash saved₦73tn

NPV₦10.2tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy1.41 TWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity6.02 GWp

Capex₦5.71tn

Year-one energy value₦3.48tn

Lifetime energy value₦163tn

NPV₦25.6tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ogun State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 6.02 GWp
Capital cost: ₦5.71tn
Year 1 savings: ₦3.48tn/yr
NPV: ₦25.6tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogun State pays back quickly

Of the 3,190,767 buildings in Ogun State with a modelled payback, 60.7% pay back inside five years and 25.2% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

60.7%

Payback under 3 years

25.2%

IRR above 20%

64.7%

Under 3 years · 25%3 – 5 years · 35%5 – 7 years · 19%7 – 10 years · 10%Over 10 years · 10%

Coverage: 98% of buildings in Ogun State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Ogun State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogun State consume 3.01 TWh/yr but want 4.42 TWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 68%Suppressed · 32%

Energy wanted

4.42 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

3.01 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

1.41 TWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Ogun State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 3,190,767 buildings with a modelled result out of 3,256,848 in Ogun State. 2,549,316 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years805,253 (25%)

Under 5 years1,936,619 (61%)

Under 7 years2,542,379 (80%)

Under 10 years2,864,697 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%2,828,470 (87%)

Above 15%2,549,316 (78%)

Above 20%2,106,601 (65%)

Above 25%1,176,313 (36%)

Electricity billing bands in Ogun State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogun State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	814,244	353,205	₦305bn	₦301bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	737,742	161,460	₦234bn	₦225bn	19%	5.4 yr
C	628,300	303,465	₦326bn	₦320bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	622,145	127,775	₦274bn	₦265bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	454,417	170,944	₦233bn	₦228bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	3,138,077	1,068,260	₦781bn	₦766bn	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	55,083	22,168	₦182bn	₦178bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	31,103	11,440	₦4.76bn	₦4.76bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	16,973	7,729	₦362bn	₦350bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	8,995	4,306	₦29bn	₦28.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	4,157	2,119	₦2.88bn	₦2.88bn	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1,102	402	₦949m	₦947m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	970	308	₦8.28bn	₦7.45bn	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	181	48	₦384m	₦382m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	174	62	₦160m	₦160m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	33	7	₦23.5m	₦23.5m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	1,078,358	399,883	₦415bn	₦409bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	824,578	257,612	₦22.3bn	₦21.8bn	15%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	642,416	206,467	₦64.9bn	₦62.2bn	23%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	446,867	143,775	₦22bn	₦21.3bn	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	257,917	105,846	₦440bn	₦432bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	6,712	3,266	₦408bn	₦393bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	2,209,983	773,934	₦722bn	₦706bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban	469,382	169,677	₦330bn	₦324bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	374,311	82,971	₦203bn	₦193bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	142,387	62,888	₦73.2bn	₦71.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	60,785	27,379	₦44.4bn	₦43.6bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	790,474	314,242	₦129bn	₦128bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	718,933	167,616	₦94.4bn	₦93.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	577,426	171,472	₦17.4bn	₦17.4bn	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	488,334	174,107	₦62.9bn	₦59.4bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	413,317	182,775	₦453bn	₦442bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	89,029	39,089	₦17.9bn	₦17.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	41,335	17,344	₦6.77bn	₦6.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	30,575	11,466	₦4.7bn	₦4.7bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	22,151	10,720	₦98.3bn	₦95.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Large	17,821	1,129	₦295m	₦295m	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	16,317	4,892	₦42.7bn	₦42.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	14,375	7,005	₦344bn	₦333bn	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	3,236,968	1,112,836	₦1.31tn	₦1.28tn
Industrial	14,689	3,388	₦63.2bn	₦62.4bn
Farmland	3,515	494	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn
Retail	1,420	117	₦62.8m	₦62.8m
Commercial	250	14	₦73m	₦73m
Allotments	4	0	₦131k	₦131k
Farmyard	2	0	₦55.6k	₦55.6k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	3,190,913	1,088,984	₦838bn	₦821bn	25%	4.6 yr
SME High	41,054	16,275	₦146bn	₦142bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	24,881	11,590	₦388bn	₦375bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	1,040,208	384,845	₦449bn	₦441bn
3.0	893,115	370,273	₦720bn	₦702bn
2.0	600,398	153,605	₦52.4bn	₦49.7bn
0.0	559,974	169,761	₦17.3bn	₦17.3bn
1.0	137,015	28,787	₦5.41bn	₦5.22bn
5.0	21,293	7,369	₦55.4bn	₦54.6bn
6.0	4,845	2,209	₦72.5bn	₦69.4bn