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    Ogun State

    Rooftop solar in Obafemi Owode, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

    Obafemi Owode has 331,827 buildings with a viable rooftop and 7.64 GWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦41.3bn a year on energy.

    Viable buildings

    331,827

    Usable roof area

    34 km²

    7.64 GWp roof capacity

    Energy spend

    ₦41.3bn/yr

    20.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

    Median payback

    5.9 yr

    Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

    The savings bracket for Obafemi Owode

    Approach B

    Cash saved

    What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

    Current energy spend₦41.3bn/yr
    Year-one cash saved₦41.1bn
    Lifetime cash saved₦2.55tn
    NPV₦309bn
    Median IRR19%
    Median payback5.9 yr
    Unlocked energy91.4 GWh/yr
    Approach A

    Energy value (upper bracket)

    What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

    Installed capacity413 MWp
    Capex₦373bn
    Year-one energy value₦200bn
    Lifetime energy value₦9.32tn
    NPV₦1.43tn
    Median IRR63%
    Median payback1.6 yr

    Three ways to size Obafemi Owode's rooftops

    Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

    Baseline: mixed
    Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

    Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

    System size
    413 MWp
    Capital cost
    ₦373bn
    Year 1 savings
    ₦200bn/yr
    NPV
    ₦1.43tn
    Median IRR
    63%
    Median payback
    1.6 yr

    The odds a rooftop in Obafemi Owode pays back quickly

    Of the 313,412 buildings in Obafemi Owode with a modelled payback, 36.0% pay back inside five years and 4.9% inside three.

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    How much of Obafemi Owode's demand actually gets met

    Buildings in Obafemi Owode consume 145 GWh/yr but want 237 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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    Electricity billing bands in Obafemi Owode

    Loading band economics…

    How many rooftops in Obafemi Owode actually pay

    Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 313,412 buildings with a modelled result out of 331,827 in Obafemi Owode. 205,798 clear a positive NPV.

    Payback

    Under 3 years15,426 (5%)
    Under 5 years112,824 (36%)
    Under 7 years204,626 (65%)
    Under 10 years264,373 (84%)

    Return (IRR)

    Above 10%257,987 (78%)
    Above 15%205,798 (62%)
    Above 20%138,605 (42%)
    Above 25%36,869 (11%)
    CO₂ avoided

    111 kt/yr

    Fuel avoided

    7.19 million litres/yr

    Energy unlocked

    91.4 GWh/yr

    Demand that is suppressed today

    People served

    274k

    What hardware costs right now

    Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Obafemi Owode.

    Solar panels

    ₦250

    ₦/W

    Inverters

    ₦127,419

    ₦/kVA

    Batteries

    ₦177,500

    ₦/kWh

    Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

    Building mix in Obafemi Owode

    Electricity billing band

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    E265,77226,415₦29.8bn₦29.6bn19%5.9 yr
    D55,6457,228₦7.02bn₦7.02bn19%5.9 yr
    C7,191921₦1.06bn₦1.03bn19%5.1 yr
    B2,770459₦2.15bn₦2.15bn19%5.6 yr
    A44936₦1.26bn₦1.26bn13%6.4 yr

    Load profile

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Residential323,96934,285₦8.39bn₦8.39bn17%5.9 yr
    Commercial General3,213279₦5.22bn₦5.19bn31%3.6 yr
    Anchor1,635237₦25.3bn₦25.2bn39%2.6 yr
    Industrial1,389198₦1.94bn₦1.92bn35%3.1 yr
    Commercial Retail1,09632₦51.8m₦51.8m31%3.4 yr
    Worship31014₦58.7m₦58.7m33%3.4 yr
    Hospitality1076₦200m₦200m33%3.4 yr
    Filling Station728₦35.8m₦35.8m33%3.4 yr
    Mall Retail200₦8.23m₦8.23m33%3.4 yr
    Productive Use120₦16.6m₦16.6m33%3.4 yr
    Automotive40₦2.32m₦2.32m29%3.6 yr

    Roof size band

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    100 250m2117,57912,662₦5.27bn₦5.27bn21%4.9 yr
    Under 30m271,5987,225₦716m₦709m13%7.1 yr
    50 100m267,3716,256₦989m₦989m13%7.6 yr
    30 50m241,8924,204₦591m₦591m15%6.9 yr
    250 1000m232,2604,277₦5.93bn₦5.9bn25%4.4 yr
    Over 1000m21,127435₦27.8bn₦27.6bn31%3.4 yr

    Settlement type

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Urban Centre196,47713,284₦17.1bn₦17.1bn17%5.9 yr
    Urban60,97012,443₦10.4bn₦10.4bn19%5.4 yr
    Unclassified55,9455,827₦12bn₦11.8bn17%6.4 yr
    Rural11,7202,857₦1.52bn₦1.52bn21%5.1 yr
    Dense Urban6,715648₦282m₦282m17%5.6 yr

    Building type

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Residential Informal151,80618,229₦4.76bn₦4.76bn19%5.6 yr
    Shed64,6477,616₦767m₦767m17%6.4 yr
    Residential Small43,6802,509₦263m₦263m11%8.4 yr
    Residential39,9075,240₦2.26bn₦2.26bn23%4.6 yr
    Residential Large12,972514₦185m₦185m19%5.6 yr
    Residential Formal10,712141₦139m₦139m15%5.9 yr
    Institutional1,605249₦24.9bn₦24.7bn29%3.6 yr
    Kiosk Shop1,09732₦53.5m₦53.5m31%3.4 yr
    Unknown976102₦2.43bn₦2.43bn29%3.6 yr
    Commercial Corridor96020₦1.21bn₦1.21bn33%3.1 yr
    Industrial Site69696₦650m₦644m35%3.1 yr
    Educational Facility48756₦495m₦495m41%2.6 yr

    Land use

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B)
    (Unset)331,61835,057₦39.9bn₦39.7bn
    Industrial1790₦1.39bn₦1.39bn
    Commercial160₦544k₦544k
    Farmland142₦225k₦225k

    Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

    Lead segment

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Standard327,73534,589₦12.5bn₦12.5bn17%5.9 yr
    Enterprise2,900422₦27.2bn₦27bn35%3.1 yr
    SME High1,19248₦1.65bn₦1.62bn33%3.1 yr

    Demand tier

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B)
    2.0145,24316,293₦4.77bn₦4.77bn
    0.061,5997,439₦747m₦747m
    3.056,0277,185₦9.36bn₦9.31bn
    4.038,5121,091₦24.1bn₦24bn
    1.030,0993,019₦228m₦228m
    5.029625₦1.44bn₦1.43bn
    6.0517₦655m₦622m

    Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

    Nearby LGAs in Ogun

    Ado Odo/Ota795,701 buildingsIfo502,601 buildingsShagamu299,814 buildingsIpokia145,614 buildingsAbeokuta North136,100 buildingsEwekoro122,414 buildingsYewa South114,747 buildingsAbeokuta South109,347 buildingsYewa North103,642 buildingsOdeda92,613 buildingsIjebu East87,335 buildingsIjebu Ode85,563 buildings