Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Ijebu East, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Ijebu East has 87,335 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.61 GWp of roof capacity. 41% run a generator, and together they spend ₦57.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

87,335

Usable roof area

7.18 km²

1.61 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦57.8bn/yr

54.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ijebu East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦57.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦56.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.97tn

NPV₦441bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy38.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity180 MWp

Capex₦177bn

Year-one energy value₦132bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.21tn

NPV₦1.02tn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ijebu East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 180 MWp
Capital cost: ₦177bn
Year 1 savings: ₦132bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.02tn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ijebu East pays back quickly

Of the 85,901 buildings in Ijebu East with a modelled payback, 59.0% pay back inside five years and 36.8% inside three.

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How much of Ijebu East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ijebu East consume 93.8 GWh/yr but want 132 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ijebu East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ijebu East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 85,901 buildings with a modelled result out of 87,335 in Ijebu East. 60,818 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years31,595 (37%)

Under 5 years50,657 (59%)

Under 7 years60,673 (71%)

Under 10 years66,564 (77%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%65,756 (75%)

Above 15%60,818 (70%)

Above 20%53,516 (61%)

Above 25%35,999 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

99.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

27.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

38.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

298k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ijebu East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ijebu East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	37,108	6,780	₦11.6bn	₦11.1bn	15%	6.9 yr
C	24,221	16,209	₦27.8bn	₦27.2bn	41%	2.6 yr
D	14,499	5,764	₦10.9bn	₦10.9bn	25%	4.6 yr
B	11,507	6,986	₦7.41bn	₦7.33bn	37%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	84,221	33,440	₦37.2bn	₦36.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,233	965	₦6.72bn	₦6.71bn	47%	2.1 yr
Anchor	547	422	₦12.2bn	₦11.6bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	496	294	₦489m	₦489m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	432	367	₦168m	₦168m	47%	2.4 yr
Industrial	273	176	₦968m	₦941m	51%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	58	38	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	50	26	₦23.8m	₦23.8m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	25	11	₦16.9m	₦16.9m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	23,308	7,713	₦823m	₦810m	7%	14.4 yr
100 250m2	22,300	12,915	₦18bn	₦18bn	41%	2.6 yr
50 100m2	21,507	6,177	₦2.72bn	₦2.62bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	13,616	4,208	₦812m	₦808m	15%	7.4 yr
250 1000m2	6,430	4,591	₦23.3bn	₦22.7bn	49%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	174	135	₦12.1bn	₦11.6bn	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	33,826	4,528	₦9.98bn	₦9.42bn	13%	7.6 yr
Urban Centre	29,692	21,110	₦27.3bn	₦26.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
Urban	10,683	6,596	₦15.7bn	₦15.6bn	51%	2.1 yr
Rural	7,376	654	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	13%	7.9 yr
Dense Urban	5,758	2,851	₦3.67bn	₦3.65bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	28,013	9,331	₦3.5bn	₦3.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	22,982	5,773	₦682m	₦682m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential	17,627	10,450	₦29.6bn	₦29.1bn	53%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	7,583	3,360	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	6,526	3,624	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,053	669	₦213m	₦213m	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	662	471	₦11.3bn	₦11.3bn	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	475	396	₦181m	₦181m	47%	2.1 yr
Duplex	309	162	₦71.2m	₦71.2m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	307	264	₦2.08bn	₦2.08bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial	305	276	₦2.64bn	₦2.63bn	49%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	210	116	₦64.6m	₦64.6m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	86,822	35,385	₦57bn	₦55.8bn
Industrial	509	352	₦710m	₦710m
Farmland	3	2	₦1.34m	₦1.34m
Commercial	1	0	₦25.5k	₦25.5k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	85,885	34,596	₦39.9bn	₦39.3bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	795	583	₦13.1bn	₦12.5bn	53%	1.9 yr
SME High	655	560	₦4.76bn	₦4.75bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	30,144	17,106	₦43.7bn	₦42.5bn
0.0	23,109	5,835	₦709m	₦709m
2.0	16,506	5,033	₦2.47bn	₦2.46bn
4.0	11,222	6,203	₦7.75bn	₦7.73bn
1.0	6,054	1,298	₦380m	₦378m
5.0	223	193	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn
6.0	77	71	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn