Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Shagamu, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Shagamu has 299,814 buildings with a viable rooftop and 6.47 GWp of roof capacity. 43% run a generator, and together they spend ₦188bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

299,814

Usable roof area

28.8 km²

6.47 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦188bn/yr

152 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shagamu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦188bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦183bn

Lifetime cash saved₦9.91tn

NPV₦1.36tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy195 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity878 MWp

Capex₦780bn

Year-one energy value₦415bn

Lifetime energy value₦19.2tn

NPV₦2.93tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Shagamu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 878 MWp
Capital cost: ₦780bn
Year 1 savings: ₦415bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.93tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shagamu pays back quickly

Of the 296,033 buildings in Shagamu with a modelled payback, 67.2% pay back inside five years and 31.7% inside three.

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How much of Shagamu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shagamu consume 482 GWh/yr but want 677 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shagamu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shagamu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 296,033 buildings with a modelled result out of 299,814 in Shagamu. 255,670 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years93,713 (32%)

Under 5 years198,854 (67%)

Under 7 years254,992 (86%)

Under 10 years279,374 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%277,107 (92%)

Above 15%255,670 (85%)

Above 20%213,429 (71%)

Above 25%133,486 (45%)

CO₂ avoided

368 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

59.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

195 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

395k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shagamu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Shagamu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	166,032	76,539	₦76.6bn	₦75.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	91,405	39,428	₦93.4bn	₦90bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	35,635	11,976	₦12.4bn	₦12.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	4,573	1,869	₦5.02bn	₦3.97bn	25%	4.6 yr
E	2,169	413	₦803m	₦803m	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	282,308	122,047	₦57.3bn	₦56.9bn	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	8,304	3,985	₦34.8bn	₦33.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	6,130	2,704	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	1,523	709	₦88.2bn	₦84.8bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	1,132	663	₦6.35bn	₦5.87bn	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	202	52	₦58m	₦58m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	97	34	₦327m	₦317m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	84	22	₦81.7m	₦81.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	17	5	₦20.3m	₦20.2m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	12	3	₦6.38m	₦6.38m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	5	1	₦1.19m	₦1.19m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	99,042	45,621	₦36.5bn	₦36.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	73,410	29,904	₦2.53bn	₦2.49bn	17%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	60,755	24,956	₦6.14bn	₦6.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	41,131	16,753	₦2.37bn	₦2.32bn	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	24,603	12,513	₦41.7bn	₦41.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	873	478	₦99bn	₦94.6bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	204,630	95,990	₦82.8bn	₦79.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	74,918	28,834	₦75.4bn	₦73.5bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	19,206	4,765	₦29.6bn	₦29.3bn	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	1,060	636	₦420m	₦420m	51%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	84,855	45,796	₦16bn	₦15.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	50,236	14,661	₦8.74bn	₦8.63bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	48,338	17,176	₦1.86bn	₦1.86bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Small	47,162	18,514	₦3.84bn	₦3.75bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	36,375	17,257	₦23.8bn	₦23.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	10,777	5,946	₦2.16bn	₦2.06bn	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	6,138	2,707	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	5,123	2,881	₦25.3bn	₦24.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	4,474	2,656	₦918m	₦918m	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,750	583	₦4.78bn	₦4.49bn	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	1,301	676	₦87.3bn	₦83.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
Unknown	509	175	₦2.53bn	₦2.43bn	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	298,081	129,336	₦172bn	₦167bn
Industrial	1,651	889	₦16.5bn	₦16.3bn
Farmland	77	0	₦2.72m	₦2.72m
Allotments	4	0	₦131k	₦131k
Farmyard	1	0	₦4.6k	₦4.6k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	290,364	125,451	₦63.8bn	₦63.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
SME High	7,035	3,511	₦30.4bn	₦29.6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	2,415	1,263	₦94bn	₦90.2bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	112,028	55,330	₦66.4bn	₦63.5bn
3.0	95,048	41,093	₦86.8bn	₦85.7bn
0.0	48,027	17,149	₦1.86bn	₦1.86bn
2.0	33,496	12,073	₦2.65bn	₦2.52bn
1.0	6,077	1,946	₦335m	₦333m
5.0	3,905	1,899	₦10.9bn	₦10.6bn
6.0	1,233	735	₦19.2bn	₦18.3bn