Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Ipokia, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Ipokia has 145,614 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.42 GWp of roof capacity. 24% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.36bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

145,614

Usable roof area

10.8 km²

2.42 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.36bn/yr

4.26 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ipokia

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.36bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.34bn

Lifetime cash saved₦498bn

NPV₦58bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy15 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61.1 MWp

Capex₦63.7bn

Year-one energy value₦36bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.7tn

NPV₦262bn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ipokia's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦36bn/yr
NPV: ₦262bn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ipokia pays back quickly

Of the 143,982 buildings in Ipokia with a modelled payback, 44.6% pay back inside five years and 11.8% inside three.

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How much of Ipokia's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ipokia consume 24.4 GWh/yr but want 39.4 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ipokia

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ipokia actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 143,982 buildings with a modelled result out of 145,614 in Ipokia. 111,567 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,997 (12%)

Under 5 years64,202 (45%)

Under 7 years111,082 (77%)

Under 10 years133,891 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%131,891 (91%)

Above 15%111,567 (77%)

Above 20%77,375 (53%)

Above 25%34,621 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

20.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.47 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

101k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ipokia.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ipokia

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	122,443	28,381	₦6.99bn	₦6.96bn	21%	5.4 yr
D	23,171	6,669	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	143,661	34,443	₦6.05bn	₦6.05bn	21%	5.4 yr
Commercial General	741	224	₦735m	₦735m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	515	148	₦1.14bn	₦1.12bn	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial	247	71	₦297m	₦296m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	232	103	₦24.6m	₦24.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	99	32	₦52.9m	₦52.9m	33%	3.1 yr
Worship	76	23	₦33.6m	₦33.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	24	1	₦2.15m	₦2.15m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	18	4	₦24.4m	₦24.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦880k	₦880k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	45,448	12,421	₦3.9bn	₦3.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	36,487	8,497	₦601m	₦600m	17%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	34,236	6,765	₦726m	₦726m	17%	6.1 yr
30 50m2	22,933	4,909	₦481m	₦481m	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	6,467	2,437	₦2.21bn	₦2.18bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	43	21	₦444m	₦444m	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	58,224	16,712	₦3.2bn	₦3.2bn	21%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	44,544	9,031	₦2.54bn	₦2.54bn	19%	5.9 yr
Urban	30,395	5,153	₦1.69bn	₦1.66bn	21%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	11,161	4,016	₦887m	₦887m	25%	4.6 yr
Rural	1,290	138	₦40m	₦40m	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	51,104	16,866	₦3.74bn	₦3.74bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	47,995	10,870	₦844m	₦844m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential	21,165	4,067	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	21,147	2,213	₦208m	₦208m	17%	6.6 yr
Residential Large	2,176	409	₦70.3m	₦70.3m	23%	4.9 yr
Institutional	506	152	₦811m	₦811m	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	252	102	₦25.3m	₦25.3m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	246	77	₦262m	₦262m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial Site	221	62	₦246m	₦245m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	154	46	₦169m	₦169m	41%	2.6 yr
School	140	45	₦76.4m	₦76.4m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	99	32	₦52.9m	₦52.9m	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	145,614	35,050	₦8.36bn	₦8.34bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	144,501	34,717	₦6.6bn	₦6.6bn	21%	5.4 yr
Enterprise	752	218	₦1.43bn	₦1.41bn	37%	2.9 yr
SME High	361	115	₦326m	₦326m	33%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	65,780	16,747	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn
0.0	47,108	10,781	₦838m	₦838m
1.0	16,916	2,383	₦186m	₦186m
3.0	14,780	4,933	₦3.09bn	₦3.06bn
4.0	985	199	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn
5.0	45	7	₦87.1m	₦87.1m