Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Ifo, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Ifo has 502,601 buildings with a viable rooftop and 9.13 GWp of roof capacity. 30% run a generator, and together they spend ₦96.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

502,601

Usable roof area

40.7 km²

9.13 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦96.9bn/yr

49.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ifo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦96.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦94.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦5.6tn

NPV₦691bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy163 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity630 MWp

Capex₦625bn

Year-one energy value₦347bn

Lifetime energy value₦16.2tn

NPV₦2.49tn

Median IRR61%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ifo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 630 MWp
Capital cost: ₦625bn
Year 1 savings: ₦347bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.49tn
Median IRR: 61%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ifo pays back quickly

Of the 495,558 buildings in Ifo with a modelled payback, 61.2% pay back inside five years and 19.6% inside three.

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How much of Ifo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ifo consume 282 GWh/yr but want 445 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ifo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ifo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 495,558 buildings with a modelled result out of 502,601 in Ifo. 400,836 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years97,086 (20%)

Under 5 years303,406 (61%)

Under 7 years399,563 (81%)

Under 10 years450,987 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%445,308 (89%)

Above 15%400,836 (80%)

Above 20%332,449 (66%)

Above 25%149,618 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

234 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

28.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

163 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

946k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ifo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ifo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	176,178	69,431	₦36.7bn	₦36.4bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	166,623	14,889	₦29.2bn	₦27.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	114,072	53,600	₦25.3bn	₦24.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	33,417	9,477	₦4.61bn	₦4.6bn	19%	5.6 yr
E	12,311	1,605	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	11%	8.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	489,478	146,172	₦62.8bn	₦61.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	5,355	1,024	₦10.5bn	₦10.3bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3,511	547	₦339m	₦339m	31%	3.4 yr
Anchor	2,631	680	₦20.7bn	₦19.9bn	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial	979	441	₦1.91bn	₦1.87bn	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	406	107	₦185m	₦185m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	117	17	₦303m	₦300m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	79	7	₦46.8m	₦46.8m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	25	5	₦50m	₦50m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	12	0	₦79.1m	₦79.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	8	2	₦3.86m	₦3.86m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	164,610	53,369	₦37.8bn	₦37.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	139,652	38,078	₦2.58bn	₦2.57bn	15%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	96,123	28,799	₦6.78bn	₦6.16bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	69,662	20,297	₦2.27bn	₦2.26bn	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	31,909	8,273	₦23.5bn	₦23.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	645	186	₦24bn	₦22.9bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	450,926	135,757	₦86.4bn	₦84.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban	38,716	9,832	₦8.02bn	₦7.95bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,365	2,610	₦996m	₦996m	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	5,841	557	₦821m	₦821m	9%	8.1 yr
Rural	753	246	₦677m	₦677m	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	188,431	61,694	₦18.2bn	₦18.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	118,998	18,977	₦14.4bn	₦14.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	67,006	21,614	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	50,334	18,446	₦5.15bn	₦4.44bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	36,226	15,191	₦20bn	₦19.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	18,683	6,838	₦2.2bn	₦2.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
Duplex	9,744	3,398	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	25%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,032	543	₦293m	₦293m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	2,880	560	₦5.2bn	₦5.2bn	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	1,740	508	₦19.4bn	₦18.8bn	29%	3.6 yr
School	969	264	₦652m	₦652m	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	822	204	₦688m	₦688m	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	500,324	148,763	₦95.8bn	₦93.5bn
Farmland	1,118	140	₦160m	₦160m
Retail	684	0	₦37.5m	₦37.5m
Industrial	409	88	₦844m	₦844m
Commercial	66	11	₦65.5m	₦65.5m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	494,784	147,255	₦67.1bn	₦65.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	4,379	696	₦7.83bn	₦7.62bn	33%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	3,438	1,051	₦22bn	₦21.4bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	235,919	69,538	₦49.8bn	₦49bn
3.0	128,178	42,284	₦34.2bn	₦33.5bn
0.0	63,215	21,122	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn
2.0	59,238	13,346	₦3.58bn	₦2.76bn
1.0	12,836	2,221	₦221m	₦221m
5.0	2,650	383	₦3.67bn	₦3.66bn
6.0	565	108	₦3.62bn	₦3.57bn