Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Yewa North, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Yewa North has 103,642 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.76 GWp of roof capacity. 45% run a generator, and together they spend ₦45.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

103,642

Usable roof area

7.88 km²

1.76 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦45.6bn/yr

39.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yewa North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦45.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦45bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.34tn

NPV₦358bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy33.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity155 MWp

Capex₦161bn

Year-one energy value₦132bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.27tn

NPV₦1.04tn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Yewa North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 155 MWp
Capital cost: ₦161bn
Year 1 savings: ₦132bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.04tn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yewa North pays back quickly

Of the 102,748 buildings in Yewa North with a modelled payback, 63.5% pay back inside five years and 40.3% inside three.

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How much of Yewa North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yewa North consume 64.7 GWh/yr but want 98.5 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yewa North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yewa North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 102,748 buildings with a modelled result out of 103,642 in Yewa North. 74,451 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years41,430 (40%)

Under 5 years65,198 (63%)

Under 7 years74,344 (72%)

Under 10 years81,202 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%79,938 (77%)

Above 15%74,451 (72%)

Above 20%67,654 (65%)

Above 25%50,173 (48%)

CO₂ avoided

82.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

24.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

33.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

351k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yewa North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yewa North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	53,837	22,886	₦25.5bn	₦25.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	45,859	21,718	₦16.9bn	₦16.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	2,287	1,238	₦814m	₦813m	29%	3.6 yr
A	964	61	₦676m	₦658m	19%	5.9 yr
B	695	319	₦1.67bn	₦1.53bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	101,779	44,817	₦37.9bn	₦37.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	737	506	₦2.14bn	₦2.13bn	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	466	409	₦4.76bn	₦4.6bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	287	203	₦517m	₦514m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	278	225	₦182m	₦182m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	47	35	₦54.6m	₦54.4m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	42	23	₦4.47m	₦4.47m	47%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	5	3	₦7.56m	₦7.56m	41%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦246k	₦246k	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	33,817	19,262	₦23.4bn	₦23.2bn	41%	2.6 yr
Under 30m2	26,447	8,780	₦758m	₦752m	9%	12.9 yr
50 100m2	22,566	9,270	₦3.38bn	₦3.36bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	16,535	5,985	₦1.11bn	₦947m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,216	2,884	₦13.4bn	₦13.3bn	53%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	61	41	₦3.54bn	₦3.48bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	46,985	15,048	₦20.5bn	₦20.1bn	21%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	28,152	15,807	₦9.98bn	₦9.9bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	18,968	10,237	₦10.2bn	₦10.1bn	41%	2.6 yr
Rural	9,537	5,130	₦4.88bn	₦4.88bn	63%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	30,472	8,676	₦853m	₦853m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	25,780	10,971	₦4.62bn	₦4.46bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	21,417	12,345	₦27.5bn	₦27.3bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	19,956	10,700	₦3.93bn	₦3.93bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	2,612	1,421	₦648m	₦648m	29%	3.6 yr
Duplex	1,228	682	₦281m	₦281m	27%	3.9 yr
Institutional	616	481	₦4.15bn	₦4.09bn	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	266	185	₦472m	₦469m	61%	1.6 yr
Residential Informal	244	0	₦14.4m	₦14.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Educational Facility	151	136	₦507m	₦507m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial	115	110	₦427m	₦427m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	108	87	₦45.8m	₦45.8m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	103,344	46,161	₦44.9bn	₦44.3bn
Industrial	298	61	₦662m	₦644m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	102,689	45,463	₦39.8bn	₦39.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	745	605	₦5.16bn	₦5bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	208	154	₦622m	₦622m	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	30,922	18,115	₦32.6bn	₦32.4bn
0.0	30,232	8,616	₦841m	₦841m
4.0	21,731	11,697	₦6.73bn	₦6.65bn
2.0	15,807	6,491	₦4.63bn	₦4.4bn
1.0	4,913	1,271	₦518m	₦516m
5.0	36	31	₦198m	₦198m
6.0	1	1	₦8.51m	₦8.51m