Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Yewa South, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Yewa South has 114,747 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.18 GWp of roof capacity. 58% run a generator, and together they spend ₦64.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

114,747

Usable roof area

9.71 km²

2.18 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦64.5bn/yr

54.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.4 yr

Median IRR 31% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yewa South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦64.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦63bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.32tn

NPV₦488bn

Median IRR31%

Median payback3.4 yr

Unlocked energy43.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity192 MWp

Capex₦194bn

Year-one energy value₦140bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.63tn

NPV₦1.08tn

Median IRR75%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Yewa South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 192 MWp
Capital cost: ₦194bn
Year 1 savings: ₦140bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.08tn
Median IRR: 75%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yewa South pays back quickly

Of the 113,957 buildings in Yewa South with a modelled payback, 74.8% pay back inside five years and 44.5% inside three.

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How much of Yewa South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yewa South consume 101 GWh/yr but want 145 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yewa South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yewa South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 113,957 buildings with a modelled result out of 114,747 in Yewa South. 98,246 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years50,729 (45%)

Under 5 years85,209 (75%)

Under 7 years98,119 (86%)

Under 10 years104,389 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%103,661 (90%)

Above 15%98,246 (86%)

Above 20%88,662 (77%)

Above 25%65,762 (57%)

CO₂ avoided

115 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

32.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

43.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

302k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yewa South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yewa South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	55,689	33,196	₦18.5bn	₦18.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
D	38,377	24,675	₦32.5bn	₦31.8bn	45%	2.4 yr
E	17,713	7,409	₦12.6bn	₦11.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	2,968	811	₦988m	₦988m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	110,946	64,139	₦52.9bn	₦51.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial General	1,684	797	₦4.4bn	₦4.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,041	342	₦146m	₦146m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	474	380	₦6.32bn	₦6.32bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	276	227	₦191m	₦191m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	226	153	₦394m	₦384m	47%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	68	39	₦65.3m	₦65.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	26	10	₦83.4m	₦82.8m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	5	3	₦6.39m	₦6.39m	47%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦3.13m	₦3.13m	51%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	38,333	24,073	₦28.8bn	₦28.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Under 30m2	30,355	15,876	₦1.23bn	₦1.21bn	21%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	21,595	11,826	₦4.25bn	₦4.07bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	16,642	8,900	₦1.28bn	₦1.27bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	7,724	5,333	₦22.8bn	₦22bn	41%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	98	83	₦6.14bn	₦6.14bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	71,760	43,109	₦32.4bn	₦32.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	14,574	7,453	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	35%	2.9 yr
Unclassified	12,770	3,669	₦8.13bn	₦6.99bn	19%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	8,706	7,765	₦8.49bn	₦8.25bn	51%	2.1 yr
Rural	6,937	4,095	₦4.47bn	₦4.42bn	59%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	32,814	22,291	₦6.93bn	₦6.93bn	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	23,247	10,085	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	20,954	10,771	₦5.09bn	₦4.89bn	41%	2.6 yr
Residential	18,523	11,376	₦33.8bn	₦32.6bn	53%	2.1 yr
Residential Informal	9,834	5,591	₦4.37bn	₦4.37bn	27%	3.9 yr
Apartment	3,849	2,826	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	33%	3.1 yr
Duplex	1,691	1,189	₦439m	₦439m	33%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	912	340	₦136m	₦136m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	785	437	₦2.43bn	₦2.43bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	501	75	₦774m	₦774m	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	471	370	₦5.55bn	₦5.55bn	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	169	138	₦534m	₦534m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	114,505	65,991	₦64.5bn	₦63bn
Retail	236	100	₦16.7m	₦16.7m
Farmland	6	0	₦37.3k	₦37.3k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	112,565	65,010	₦54.5bn	₦53.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
SME High	1,497	562	₦3.31bn	₦3.31bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	685	519	₦6.68bn	₦6.66bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	39,621	25,924	₦13.6bn	₦13.6bn
3.0	33,802	21,396	₦44.7bn	₦43.3bn
0.0	23,133	10,092	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn
2.0	13,981	7,075	₦3.47bn	₦3.4bn
1.0	3,613	1,546	₦448m	₦448m
5.0	456	43	₦883m	₦882m
6.0	141	15	₦402m	₦402m