Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Ijebu Ode, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Ijebu Ode has 85,563 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.11 GWp of roof capacity. 58% run a generator, and together they spend ₦63.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

85,563

Usable roof area

9.4 km²

2.11 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦63.5bn/yr

53 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.4 yr

Median IRR 33% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ijebu Ode

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦63.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦62.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.33tn

NPV₦477bn

Median IRR33%

Median payback3.4 yr

Unlocked energy49.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity203 MWp

Capex₦197bn

Year-one energy value₦127bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.97tn

NPV₦953bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ijebu Ode's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 203 MWp
Capital cost: ₦197bn
Year 1 savings: ₦127bn/yr
NPV: ₦953bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ijebu Ode pays back quickly

Of the 85,190 buildings in Ijebu Ode with a modelled payback, 80.3% pay back inside five years and 43.3% inside three.

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How much of Ijebu Ode's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ijebu Ode consume 117 GWh/yr but want 166 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ijebu Ode

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ijebu Ode actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 85,190 buildings with a modelled result out of 85,563 in Ijebu Ode. 77,681 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years36,860 (43%)

Under 5 years68,443 (80%)

Under 7 years77,579 (91%)

Under 10 years81,927 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%81,455 (95%)

Above 15%77,681 (91%)

Above 20%71,280 (83%)

Above 25%49,996 (58%)

CO₂ avoided

117 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

28.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

49.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

208k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ijebu Ode.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ijebu Ode

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	50,841	25,977	₦24.8bn	₦24.5bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	24,608	16,379	₦22.8bn	₦22.2bn	43%	2.6 yr
E	5,772	3,748	₦10.2bn	₦9.98bn	67%	1.6 yr
D	3,182	2,135	₦4.12bn	₦4.12bn	57%	1.9 yr
A	1,160	1,148	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn	41%	2.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	80,550	46,479	₦43.6bn	₦43bn	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	2,174	1,243	₦7.81bn	₦7.72bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,209	611	₦200m	₦200m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	919	555	₦10bn	₦9.71bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	335	266	₦1.14bn	₦1.13bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	233	153	₦264m	₦264m	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	65	31	₦285m	₦277m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	54	43	₦72.7m	₦72.6m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	14	3	₦29.2m	₦29.2m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	8	2	₦4.72m	₦4.72m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦5.84m	₦5.84m	29%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	26,195	15,198	₦18.7bn	₦18.6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Under 30m2	20,842	12,060	₦1.18bn	₦1.14bn	27%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	14,162	7,946	₦2.98bn	₦2.57bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	13,284	7,909	₦31bn	₦30.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	10,901	6,145	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	179	129	₦8.53bn	₦8.43bn	47%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	66,286	37,195	₦42.4bn	₦41.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
Urban	9,808	6,092	₦11.7bn	₦11.5bn	57%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	5,231	2,742	₦5.59bn	₦5.48bn	31%	3.4 yr
Dense Urban	4,238	3,358	₦3.86bn	₦3.82bn	41%	2.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	32,451	18,609	₦14bn	₦13.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	14,918	6,503	₦2.95bn	₦2.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	11,221	7,679	₦22.8bn	₦22.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	10,263	6,869	₦2.91bn	₦2.57bn	55%	1.9 yr
Shed	9,845	6,071	₦659m	₦659m	39%	2.6 yr
Apartment	1,341	548	₦210m	₦210m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,209	610	₦201m	₦201m	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	654	472	₦8.24bn	₦8.13bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	651	379	₦2.89bn	₦2.87bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	608	260	₦2.58bn	₦2.52bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	421	138	₦51.4m	₦51.4m	25%	4.6 yr
School	339	180	₦652m	₦652m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	85,561	49,385	₦63.5bn	₦62.4bn
Farmland	2	2	₦1.18m	₦1.18m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	82,945	47,865	₦46.6bn	₦45.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
SME High	1,380	712	₦5.77bn	₦5.68bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,238	810	₦11.1bn	₦10.8bn	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	31,836	16,103	₦23.3bn	₦22.9bn
3.0	27,863	17,584	₦32.5bn	₦32.1bn
2.0	12,592	7,580	₦2.35bn	₦2.1bn
0.0	9,867	6,104	₦682m	₦682m
1.0	2,476	1,594	₦195m	₦167m
5.0	769	347	₦3.11bn	₦3.04bn
6.0	160	75	₦1.45bn	₦1.43bn