Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Abeokuta North, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Abeokuta North has 136,100 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.97 GWp of roof capacity. 19% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

136,100

Usable roof area

13.2 km²

2.97 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.2bn/yr

11.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Abeokuta North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦979bn

NPV₦125bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy27.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity127 MWp

Capex₦118bn

Year-one energy value₦66.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.07tn

NPV₦474bn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Abeokuta North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 127 MWp
Capital cost: ₦118bn
Year 1 savings: ₦66.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦474bn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Abeokuta North pays back quickly

Of the 128,297 buildings in Abeokuta North with a modelled payback, 44.3% pay back inside five years and 9.4% inside three.

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How much of Abeokuta North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Abeokuta North consume 52 GWh/yr but want 79.4 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Abeokuta North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Abeokuta North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 128,297 buildings with a modelled result out of 136,100 in Abeokuta North. 90,639 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,089 (9%)

Under 5 years56,853 (44%)

Under 7 years90,320 (70%)

Under 10 years110,383 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%108,121 (79%)

Above 15%90,639 (67%)

Above 20%66,891 (49%)

Above 25%27,137 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

40.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.33 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

115k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Abeokuta North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Abeokuta North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	95,545	19,580	₦14.3bn	₦14.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
D	36,260	5,999	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	19%	5.4 yr
C	3,797	0	₦150m	₦150m	11%	7.6 yr
B	498	7	₦115m	₦115m	15%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	132,332	24,966	₦5.35bn	₦5.35bn	19%	5.4 yr
Commercial General	2,311	347	₦4.22bn	₦4.21bn	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	857	175	₦7.3bn	₦7.25bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	214	42	₦76.4m	₦76.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	135	11	₦10.5m	₦10.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	113	17	₦90.5m	₦90.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	61	10	₦36.5m	₦36.5m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	54	12	₦117m	₦116m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	12	2	₦7.16m	₦7.16m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	9	3	₦5.16m	₦5.16m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦731k	₦731k	29%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	47,552	8,941	₦3.6bn	₦3.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	31,886	5,643	₦384m	₦383m	13%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	25,007	4,245	₦443m	₦443m	15%	7.1 yr
30 50m2	17,018	3,029	₦296m	₦296m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	14,480	3,662	₦5.74bn	₦5.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	157	66	₦6.74bn	₦6.73bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	94,928	17,927	₦12.8bn	₦12.7bn	19%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	20,932	3,156	₦3.05bn	₦3.03bn	19%	5.9 yr
Urban	17,212	3,130	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	21%	5.4 yr
Rural	3,028	1,373	₦348m	₦348m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	81,117	17,197	₦4.18bn	₦4.18bn	21%	5.1 yr
Shed	26,069	4,504	₦409m	₦409m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	12,209	1,174	₦75.8m	₦75.8m	9%	8.4 yr
Residential	10,226	1,881	₦636m	₦636m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Large	2,658	204	₦39m	₦39m	17%	6.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,339	180	₦2.99bn	₦2.97bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	520	111	₦6.68bn	₦6.67bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unknown	385	55	₦502m	₦502m	29%	3.6 yr
School	251	41	₦147m	₦147m	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	248	48	₦281m	₦281m	41%	2.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	140	27	₦361m	₦341m	27%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	134	12	₦11.5m	₦11.5m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	136,100	25,586	₦17.2bn	₦17.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	133,663	25,193	₦6.76bn	₦6.76bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	1,485	204	₦3.09bn	₦3.08bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	952	189	₦7.36bn	₦7.31bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	57,571	11,410	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn
3.0	34,131	6,776	₦3.73bn	₦3.73bn
0.0	22,514	3,812	₦338m	₦338m
1.0	11,974	2,553	₦145m	₦145m
4.0	9,191	920	₦8.97bn	₦8.92bn
5.0	680	110	₦1.97bn	₦1.96bn
6.0	39	5	₦316m	₦316m