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    Ogun State

    Rooftop solar in Ado Odo/Ota, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

    Ado Odo/Ota has 795,701 buildings with a viable rooftop and 15.2 GWp of roof capacity. 34% run a generator, and together they spend ₦231bn a year on energy.

    Viable buildings

    795,701

    Usable roof area

    67.7 km²

    15.2 GWp roof capacity

    Energy spend

    ₦231bn/yr

    140 GWh/yr burned on generators

    Median payback

    4.4 yr

    Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

    The savings bracket for Ado Odo/Ota

    Approach B

    Cash saved

    What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

    Current energy spend₦231bn/yr
    Year-one cash saved₦225bn
    Lifetime cash saved₦13tn
    NPV₦1.69tn
    Median IRR25%
    Median payback4.4 yr
    Unlocked energy346 GWh/yr
    Approach A

    Energy value (upper bracket)

    What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

    Installed capacity1.34 GWp
    Capex₦1.25tn
    Year-one energy value₦666bn
    Lifetime energy value₦31.1tn
    NPV₦4.73tn
    Median IRR57%
    Median payback1.9 yr

    Three ways to size Ado Odo/Ota's rooftops

    Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

    Baseline: mixed
    Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

    Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

    System size
    1.34 GWp
    Capital cost
    ₦1.25tn
    Year 1 savings
    ₦666bn/yr
    NPV
    ₦4.73tn
    Median IRR
    57%
    Median payback
    1.9 yr

    The odds a rooftop in Ado Odo/Ota pays back quickly

    Of the 782,801 buildings in Ado Odo/Ota with a modelled payback, 62.4% pay back inside five years and 24.0% inside three.

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    How much of Ado Odo/Ota's demand actually gets met

    Buildings in Ado Odo/Ota consume 650 GWh/yr but want 996 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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    Electricity billing bands in Ado Odo/Ota

    Loading band economics…

    How many rooftops in Ado Odo/Ota actually pay

    Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 782,801 buildings with a modelled result out of 795,701 in Ado Odo/Ota. 644,772 clear a positive NPV.

    Payback

    Under 3 years187,492 (24%)
    Under 5 years488,273 (62%)
    Under 7 years643,181 (82%)
    Under 10 years716,616 (92%)

    Return (IRR)

    Above 10%708,161 (89%)
    Above 15%644,772 (81%)
    Above 20%531,451 (67%)
    Above 25%283,274 (36%)
    CO₂ avoided

    526 kt/yr

    Fuel avoided

    67.9 million litres/yr

    Energy unlocked

    346 GWh/yr

    Demand that is suppressed today

    People served

    1.11m

    What hardware costs right now

    Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ado Odo/Ota.

    Solar panels

    ₦250

    ₦/W

    Inverters

    ₦127,419

    ₦/kVA

    Batteries

    ₦177,500

    ₦/kWh

    Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

    Building mix in Ado Odo/Ota

    Electricity billing band

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    A341,85564,748₦125bn₦122bn23%4.6 yr
    B213,599102,447₦39.6bn₦39.2bn25%4.4 yr
    C152,48173,887₦37bn₦36.1bn25%4.4 yr
    D63,25424,527₦20.2bn₦19.5bn23%4.6 yr
    E24,5127,506₦8.47bn₦7.73bn17%5.9 yr

    Load profile

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Residential777,842267,123₦110bn₦109bn25%4.6 yr
    Commercial General6,9092,339₦17.7bn₦17.5bn33%3.1 yr
    Commercial Retail5,1701,381₦653m₦653m33%3.4 yr
    Anchor2,9671,136₦89.1bn₦84.6bn39%2.6 yr
    Industrial2,068950₦10.5bn₦10.3bn37%2.9 yr
    Worship30682₦129m₦129m33%3.4 yr
    Filling Station20353₦118m₦118m33%3.4 yr
    Hospitality18943₦2.35bn₦2.31bn33%3.4 yr
    Mall Retail307₦62.8m₦62.8m33%3.1 yr
    Productive Use111₦3.33m₦3.33m33%3.4 yr
    Automotive60₦1.45m₦1.45m29%3.6 yr

    Roof size band

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    100 250m2264,14698,640₦64.8bn₦63.7bn25%4.4 yr
    Under 30m2218,21067,751₦4.82bn₦4.79bn17%6.4 yr
    50 100m2151,69252,033₦10.3bn₦10.3bn23%4.6 yr
    30 50m2110,90736,791₦4.34bn₦4.33bn21%5.4 yr
    250 1000m249,15017,331₦42.5bn₦42.4bn25%4.4 yr
    Over 1000m21,596569₦104bn₦99bn31%3.4 yr

    Settlement type

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Urban Centre727,824253,561₦211bn₦205bn25%4.4 yr
    Urban55,77215,804₦14.6bn₦14.5bn19%5.6 yr
    Unclassified9,2992,602₦4.45bn₦4.12bn17%6.1 yr
    Dense Urban2,8061,148₦802m₦801m25%4.4 yr

    Building type

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Residential Formal276,798100,011₦29.3bn₦29.3bn25%4.4 yr
    Residential Informal139,07028,428₦16.1bn₦16bn25%4.6 yr
    Shed128,44342,461₦4.27bn₦4.27bn19%5.6 yr
    Residential Small104,65941,518₦8.66bn₦8.65bn23%4.9 yr
    Residential83,67737,347₦46.3bn₦45.2bn25%4.4 yr
    Apartment29,17511,337₦3.62bn₦3.62bn25%4.4 yr
    Duplex15,8395,954₦1.79bn₦1.79bn25%4.4 yr
    Kiosk Shop5,1681,378₦643m₦643m33%3.4 yr
    Commercial3,0671,290₦7.69bn₦7.61bn35%3.1 yr
    Institutional2,4871,028₦87.4bn₦83bn31%3.4 yr
    Commercial Corridor1,734308₦4.46bn₦4.45bn35%3.1 yr
    School941398₦772m₦772m41%2.6 yr

    Land use

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B)
    (Unset)783,092271,130₦194bn₦188bn
    Industrial10,2111,710₦36.4bn₦35.8bn
    Farmland1,965267₦565m₦565m
    Retail3285₦6.15m₦6.15m
    Commercial1043₦4.52m₦4.52m
    Farmyard10₦51k₦51k

    Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

    Lead segment

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Standard785,768269,418₦119bn₦117bn25%4.6 yr
    SME High5,1471,693₦12.7bn₦12.5bn35%3.1 yr
    Enterprise4,7862,004₦99.2bn₦94.6bn39%2.6 yr

    Demand tier

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B)
    4.0331,702112,664₦121bn₦119bn
    3.0224,89687,373₦81.2bn₦77.7bn
    0.0123,55742,094₦4.2bn₦4.2bn
    2.091,82325,891₦5.42bn₦5.35bn
    1.020,2714,089₦589m₦589m
    5.02,910860₦5.95bn₦5.91bn
    6.0542144₦12.1bn₦12bn

    Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

    Nearby LGAs in Ogun

    Ifo502,601 buildingsObafemi Owode331,827 buildingsShagamu299,814 buildingsIpokia145,614 buildingsAbeokuta North136,100 buildingsEwekoro122,414 buildingsYewa South114,747 buildingsAbeokuta South109,347 buildingsYewa North103,642 buildingsOdeda92,613 buildingsIjebu East87,335 buildingsIjebu Ode85,563 buildings