Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Abeokuta South, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Abeokuta South has 109,347 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.6 GWp of roof capacity. 27% run a generator, and together they spend ₦27.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

109,347

Usable roof area

11.6 km²

2.6 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦27.5bn/yr

12.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Abeokuta South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦27.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦27.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.67tn

NPV₦210bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy56.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity229 MWp

Capex₦208bn

Year-one energy value₦118bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.51tn

NPV₦855bn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Abeokuta South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 229 MWp
Capital cost: ₦208bn
Year 1 savings: ₦118bn/yr
NPV: ₦855bn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Abeokuta South pays back quickly

Of the 107,478 buildings in Abeokuta South with a modelled payback, 66.2% pay back inside five years and 16.1% inside three.

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How much of Abeokuta South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Abeokuta South consume 89.8 GWh/yr but want 147 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Abeokuta South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Abeokuta South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 107,478 buildings with a modelled result out of 109,347 in Abeokuta South. 88,947 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,312 (16%)

Under 5 years71,130 (66%)

Under 7 years88,754 (83%)

Under 10 years98,849 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%97,692 (89%)

Above 15%88,947 (81%)

Above 20%76,531 (70%)

Above 25%39,147 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

72.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.44 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

56.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

190k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Abeokuta South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Abeokuta South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	45,220	11,933	₦10.7bn	₦10.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	31,509	5,254	₦5.65bn	₦5.62bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	25,146	8,918	₦4.77bn	₦4.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	5,831	2,675	₦5.68bn	₦5.51bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	1,641	1,130	₦646m	₦646m	53%	2.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	98,670	27,882	₦12.5bn	₦12.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	6,369	1,109	₦10.5bn	₦10.4bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,783	422	₦220m	₦220m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	934	302	₦3.15bn	₦3.08bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	247	81	₦112m	₦112m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	133	42	₦193m	₦192m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	111	38	₦529m	₦503m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	50	14	₦48.7m	₦48.7m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	32	14	₦167m	₦167m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	16	5	₦7.25m	₦7.25m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦807k	₦807k	29%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	39,819	10,767	₦9.46bn	₦9.45bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	24,093	6,520	₦475m	₦472m	13%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	18,324	4,656	₦1.24bn	₦1.23bn	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	14,250	4,583	₦12.9bn	₦12.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	12,737	3,335	₦485m	₦446m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	124	49	₦2.93bn	₦2.81bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	103,377	27,654	₦25.8bn	₦25.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,699	1,505	₦953m	₦953m	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,271	751	₦706m	₦649m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	41,509	13,189	₦5bn	₦4.96bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	31,670	6,922	₦3.38bn	₦3.38bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential	7,383	2,747	₦2.93bn	₦2.92bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	7,156	1,962	₦339m	₦337m	19%	5.6 yr
Apartment	4,832	1,283	₦491m	₦487m	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	4,347	1,192	₦131m	₦131m	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	3,399	527	₦5.19bn	₦5.19bn	33%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,791	424	₦221m	₦221m	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	1,754	583	₦242m	₦242m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	1,344	65	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unknown	982	318	₦2.24bn	₦2.21bn	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	513	160	₦1.87bn	₦1.84bn	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	109,306	29,910	₦27.5bn	₦27.2bn
Industrial	41	0	₦117k	₦117k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	103,417	28,932	₦16.5bn	₦16.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	4,898	644	₦7.73bn	₦7.66bn	33%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,032	334	₦3.27bn	₦3.19bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	55,180	16,106	₦15.1bn	₦14.9bn
3.0	23,209	6,562	₦4.74bn	₦4.73bn
2.0	19,294	4,594	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn
1.0	4,247	1,085	₦81.7m	₦81.7m
0.0	4,060	1,172	₦128m	₦128m
5.0	2,847	327	₦4.4bn	₦4.39bn
6.0	510	64	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn